Lake Mead projections higher despite long hot summer; Las Vegas water use up 2%

LAS VEGAS ( KLAS ) — A hot summer in Las Vegas pushed water consumption in August to the highest it has been all year, but the 2-year outlook for Lake Mead continues to improve.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month study, updated each month with projections that guide how dams along the Colorado River are managed, shows continued stability for Lake Mead for the rest of the year and through 2025.

Currently, Lake Mead is at 1,063.77 feet, about the same as it has been since mid-June, give or take a foot. Lake levels are expressed as feet above sea level — altitude, not depth. Lake Mead is the nation's largest reservoir, and it's currently about 165 feet down from "full pool" level — 1,229 feet. It's down to a third of its maximum capacity.

Water consumption has been higher this year, according to Bronson Mack, outreach manager for the Las Vegas Valley Water District.

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"Community water use is a little higher year-to-date than it was last year," Mack said. "Water use is 2.6% higher this year compared to the same time period last year, but we are below the average water use for the past three years combined. So, water use is still on a long-term downward trend."

Southern Nevada used 188,000 acre-feet of water in 2023. That's far less than the state's allocation from the Colorado River. So far this year, use is at 157,872 acre-feet. An acre-foot is a standard unit of measurement for stored water. It's 325,851 gallons — enough to cover one acre of land in water a foot deep.

California is the largest user of Colorado River water, receiving an allocation of 4.4 million acre-feet. Under Tier 1 water shortage restrictions this year , Nevada will receive 279,000 acre-feet.

Mack said water demand is typically highest in August as evaporative coolers and landscape irrigation put a heavy load on the system. But fall watering schedules kicked in for September, and cooler temperatures should make a difference in water demand.

"Fall is really when we can generate additional water savings by only watering our grass a maximum of three days per week and irrigating trees and plants two days per week," Mack said. "On Nov. 1, winter watering schedule begins, so set your irrigation clocks to your one assigned water day the day after Halloween."

Even with the heavy demand in July and August, projections released each month just keep getting better.

The expected low point for Lake Mead in 2025 has gone up almost 7 feet as projections have changed over the past two months. Instead of dipping to 1,059.18 feet in July 2025 (the projection made two months ago), Lake Mead is now expected to be at 1,065.98 feet. For perspective, that's 231⁄2 feet higher than when the lake hit its lowest point since it was initially filled in the 1930s — 1,041.71 feet on July 27, 2022

The range of fluctuations at Lake Mead has eased up since the dramatic plunges from 2020 to 2022. That makes recreation a little more predictable as conditions change less at boat ramps and around submerged objects. Here are the flucutations since 2019:

In the projections released this week, the fluctuation for 2025 is only 111⁄2 feet — a high of 1,069.91 in February 2025 and a low of 1,058.37 feet in July 2025.

From there, Lake Mead will rise as high as 1,074.07 feet in March 2026 before dropping back to 1,065.24 feet in June 2026.

The 24-month study offers a range of projections based on models used by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Numbers used for this story are based on the "most probable" projections.

But those projections swing quite a bit based on changing conditions. Less than a year ago, the models said Lake Mead would drop to a new low in September 2025 — 1,040.77 feet. At the time, many expected a normal to below-normal winter after the heavy snowpack in early 2023 . Instead, this year's snowpack came in at 111% of normal .