Large storm to unleash flooding, severe weather in south-central US
A multifaceted storm will bring the potential for flooding downpours and severe thunderstorms to the central and southern Plains over the coming days while dropping heavy snow in the southern Rockies .
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok noted that the track and strength of this storm are similar to what you would typically see in a springtime severe weather setup with one notable difference.
"Dew point temperatures (a measure of moisture in the air) are high for late fall, but not to the same values that you would see in May," Pastelok said. Thunderstorms have more moisture and energy to feed off with higher dew point temperatures.
Although moisture levels are not as impressive as in a springtime setup, AccuWeather Severe Weather Expert Guy Pearson says they are "just enough to reach the threshold for severe weather to develop," albeit on a less widespread scale.
Showers and thunderstorms will first break out across the western half of Texas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thunderstorms along part of the I-10 and I-20 corridor can produce hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Heavy rain can create ponding water on roads and localized flooding. The flooding threat will be especially dangerous at night when high water is more difficult for motorists to see.
"As this slow-moving storm finally starts to move out of the Four Corners region on Friday, we'll have storms progress farther to the east across the southern Plains," Pearson said.
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Larger metro areas along I-35, including Dallas and San Antonio, will be at risk of damaging thunderstorms that can produce hail, damaging wind gusts and downpours. The highest concentration of thunderstorms is expected to arrive during the Friday afternoon and evening commute, threatening to slow travel on the roads and create temporary ground stops at the airports.
"We also can't completely rule out an isolated tornado on Friday," Pearson said.
Despite the region's drought, flash flooding concerns will be elevated, even outside the severe weather risk zone. From late Thursday into Friday, chilly rain will soak the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma northward into the western half of Kansas, and 2-4 inches of rain can fall within this zone, with locally higher amounts.
"Some of the areas at risk for heavy rain and damaging thunderstorms in the coming days just dealt with flooding and severe storms last weekend and earlier this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger noted.
From Friday night into the weekend, the storm's rain shield will disperse across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, reaching the Northeast later this weekend and early next week.
