Lions vs. Packers odds, line, spread: NFL picks, Thanksgiving Day predictions by model on 175-126 run

The NFC North-leading Detroit Lions will seek their fourth consecutive win when they host the division-rival Green Bay Packers in their annual Thanksgiving Day NFL game on Thursday. Detroit (8-2) rallied from a 12-point deficit with three minutes remaining to post a 31-26 victory against Chicago last Sunday, giving the team its best record through the first 10 games of a season since 1962. Green Bay (4-6) also made a late comeback in Week 11, scoring a touchdown with 2:33 remaining in the fourth quarter en route to a 23-20 triumph over the Los Angeles Chargers . The Lions are 37-44-2 all-time on Thanksgiving, but 12-8-1 against the Packers, whom they are facing on the holiday for the first time since 2013.

Kickoff at Ford Field is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. Detroit is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Lions vs. Packers odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 47. Before making any Packers vs. Lions picks of your own, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's Advanced Computer Model .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Lions vs. Packers and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine . Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Packers vs. Lions:

Why the Lions can cover

Detroit, which owns a 2 1⁄2-game lead over Minnesota in the NFC North, is seeking its first division title since winning the Central in 1993 and first playoff berth in seven seasons. The Lions have one of the most high-powered offenses, as they rank second in total offense (399.6 yards), fourth in passing (263.0), fifth in rushing (136.6) and sixth in scoring (27.2 points). They have recorded at least 20 points in nine of their 10 games, including a 34-20 victory at Green Bay in Week 4.

David Montgomery was the star for Detroit in that contest, as he rushed for a season-high 121 yards and three touchdowns. The 26-year-old is fourth in the NFL this year with a career-high-tying eight TD runs and has recorded at least one in six of his seven outings in 2023. Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for five scores and enters Thursday with a four-game streak, the longest by a Lions rookie since the team moved to Detroit in 1934. See which team to pick here .

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay has won two of its last three contests following a four-game slide that began with the home loss to Detroit. Quarterback Jordan Love is coming off the first 300-yard performance of his career as he threw for 322 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Sunday's win against the Chargers. It was the first 300-yard effort by a Packers quarterback since Week 14 of the 2021 season, when Aaron Rodgers racked up 341 yards against the Bears .

Wide receiver Romeo Doubs hauled in Love's late TD toss last week for his career-high seventh scoring catch of the season and fourth in five games. The 23-year-old leads the Packers this year with 38 receptions and is second on the team with 396 receiving yards. He trails rookie Jayden Reed , who has made 32 catches for 463 yards and four touchdowns. The 23-year-old Reed was Green Bay's leading rusher last week with 46 yards and a TD on only three attempts after the team lost Aaron Jones (knee) and Emanuel Wilson (shoulder) to injuries. See which team to pick here .

How to make Lions vs. Packers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under the point total, predicting 45 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the model's NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine .

So who wins Lions vs. Packers on Thanksgiving Day, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Lions spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks , and find out.