Local View: Mineral shortages, broken permitting putting 'net zero' out of reach
In one of his very first actions as governor, Tim Walz used the rulemaking process to force Minnesota auto dealers to buy and stock thousands of electric vehicles — even if they didn't have customers ready to buy. The Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy, a Walz ally, predicted electric-vehicle sales would increase 200% because of the new rule.
But one important question went unanswered: Are there enough minerals available in the world to support an electric-vehicle boom?
The answer is no. A new report released by the Center of the American Experiment provides a stark warning that the minerals needed to achieve so-called net-zero policies are either in short supply, made inaccessible by permitting delays and excessive regulations, or are controlled by our geopolitical enemies, especially China.
The report — "Mission Impossible: Mineral Shortages and the Broken Permitting Process Put Net Zero Goals Out of Reach" — provides a sober assessment of the amount of minerals it would take to meet international, national, and even local goals (such as Walz's clean-car mandate) to get more and more of our energy from renewable sources like wind and solar and to switch to electric vehicles.
Using data from a wide variety of sources (including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Electric Power Research Institute) the report "does the math" on the startling differences between supply and demand for the minerals — including copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements — that are necessary to meet net-zero goals.
The data show that electric vehicles and the lithium-ion batteries that power them are creating much of the soaring demand for minerals, calling into question the wisdom of the current push to completely electrify the transportation sector. According to the report, an estimated 115% more copper will need to be mined between now and 2050 than has ever been mined in human history just to meet business-as-usual demands. Global vehicle electrification would require developing an additional 55% more mines than that baseline. The need for more mining is urgent and compelling.
Did someone say more mining? That should be music to the ears of residents of the Northland and Minnesota's Iron Range. The Duluth Complex, a massive rock formation stretching from Duluth to Pigeon Point in northern Minnesota, contains some of the world's largest undeveloped deposits of copper, nickel, platinum-group elements, and ilmenite (a titanium ore), as well as cobalt, gold, and silver. According to New Range Copper and Nickel , the Duluth Complex is one of the world's largest undeveloped mineral deposits, containing 95% of America's nickel, 88% of America's cobalt, and 33% of America's copper resources. And, remember, Minnesota has one of the most stringent and comprehensive environmental-protection regulatory programs governing proposed mining projects of any U.S. state. We have both the minerals and safeguards in place to safely deliver for the rest of the world.
Unfortunately, the administration of President Joe Biden has obstructed the timely development of two world-class copper, nickel, and cobalt deposits in Minnesota that could reduce the country's reliance on foreign minerals and provide some of the key minerals needed to meet energy-transition goals.
"Leaders like Joe Biden and Tim Walz create these unreachable energy-transition goals and then immediately sabotage them by denying permits and prohibiting mining on millions of acres of public lands," said Sarah Montalbano of Center of the American Experiment, who co-authored the report with national mining expert Debra Struhsacker.
Citing a 2024 Government Accountability Office report , the other major concern raised in the report is the United States' dependence on China to supply the minerals used in five key sectors that underpin every aspect of modern life: aerospace, defense, energy, telecommunications and electronics, and transportation. The continued reliance on China for the minerals needed for our national security and economic well-being is both dangerous and unsustainable.
Everyone assumes electric vehicles will soon be everywhere. But for that to happen, domestic mineral production has to increase. Minnesota could write the next chapter of our mining history by becoming an important, environmentally responsible producer of copper, nickel, cobalt, and other minerals. We just need leaders in St. Paul and Washington. D.C., to get out of the way.
