Mass. Voters Face Least Competitive Legislative Landscape

BOSTON, Mass. (SHNS)–Massachusetts voters have a lot of big decisions to make this election season, including who should serve as the next president, whether U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren gets a third term, and the fate of five proposed laws.

Those stakes do not extend all the way down the ballot, with most lawmakers set to sleepwalk into new terms without much effort needed. By one measure, Massachusetts once again notched a national superlative on that front: home to the least competitive state legislative elections in the country.

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In its latest biennial report assessing state legislative competition, Ballotpedia dubbed Massachusetts as home to the most uncompetitive state House and Senate races among states with contests this fall, pointing to few incumbents who faced primary challengers and the country's lowest rate of races with both Democrats and Republicans on the ballot.

Massachusetts has ranked dead last in Ballotpedia's "competitiveness index" for each of the past five cycles and in six out of the past eight, peaking at 39th out of 44 states in both 2010 and 2014.

Massachusetts lawmakers represent tens of thousands of constituents from their hometowns and surrounding areas, and are tasked with deciding every change to state law through drafting legislation, participating in public hearings and taking votes. Each lawmakers earns the same base salary ($73,511.23 in 2023), but many also get paid tens of thousands of dollars more per year for leadership or committee roles assigned to them by top Democrats and Republicans.

At peak times for business, many lawmakers gather in the State House, though much of the Legislature's work takes place remotely in the post-COVID era and the building is nearly empty a couple of days per week. Lawmakers also typically break from major business for about six weeks at the end of odd years and the final five months of even years.

While many voters have strong views on politics, it's safe to say that relatively few want to serve in the state Legislature.

Political leaders and government watchdogs alike were unsurprised by the latest findings, but they disagreed on whether they should be cause for concern. Steve Kerrigan, who chairs the Massachusetts Democratic Party, said he thinks a lack of competition suggests voters are pleased with the existing Democrat supermajority.

Scotia Hille, executive director of the progressive Act on Mass group, instead argued that research has found a connection between competitive elections and "legislative effectiveness."

"It's broadly a marker of a healthy democracy, having really competitive elections. One thing that makes it difficult in Massachusetts is having noncompetitive elections leaves power structures intact for year after year without meaningful challenges," Hille said, adding, "Being quite certain that you will have your job for sessions and sessions to come means there's little incentive for things to happen in a two-year term, which leads to things like we saw this term, where many legislative priorities were left on the table."

Ballotpedia, a nonprofit online encyclopedia that tracks American politics and elections, compiled data on the number of open seats, incumbents challenged in primaries, and seats with at least one candidate from each major party for 44 states with legislative elections this year.

Massachusetts ranked fairly high in terms of open seats. By Ballotpedia's calculations, about 22 percent of Bay State House and Senate districts have no incumbent running for reelection, the 12th-highest rate in the country.

The other two measurements pegged Massachusetts far lower: about one in 10 incumbents faced a primary opponent here, which ranked 37th out of 44, and only one in five districts featured competition from both major parties, by far the lowest rate in the country.

Ballotpedia averaged those three values to produce its "competitiveness index," which put Massachusetts back in the basement for the fifth cycle in a row.

All 200 seats in the Massachusetts Legislature are up for reelection every two years.

Democrats are on the ballot in 38 out of 40 Senate districts and 142 out of 160 House districts this time around, while Republicans are challenging in only 13 Senate districts and 47 House districts. Just 29 House districts and 11 Senate districts will feature both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot on Nov. 5, a 20 percent rate that's the lowest in the country.

The Bay State might have landed higher up in those rankings if Republicans challenged more sitting Democrat representatives and senators, but the MassGOP this cycle is targeting a smaller number of more competitive districts.

"The power of incumbency in this state, between the fundraising advantage and the name ID, is really daunting to take on as a challenger, especially in a presidential year," said MassGOP Executive Director John Milligan. "It's tough to be a Republican running in Massachusetts on a good day, and presidential years are just even tougher."

Milligan said the party under new boss Amy Carnevale is still working to chart a new course after sustaining electoral losses, legal battles and financial troubles under its former chair, Jim Lyons.

"The party has been in a rebuild for the last two years. We're still dealing with both the legal and debt implications of the prior administration," Milligan said. "We've been rebuilding. We're in a much stronger spot than we could have ever hoped to be [in] this cycle, but our resources are limited."

"Our goal really is to do well to hold onto what we have, to pick up some of these targeted seats we're looking at, and then build on that momentum going into 2026 in a gubernatorial year where seats become more competitive," he added.

Both Milligan and Paul Craney, a spokesperson for the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance, recalled a different approach under former Gov. Mitt Romney, when Republicans challenged in more legislative districts.

"I think they all lost because John Kerry, the hometown senator, was running for president," Craney, who said he was an intern during that effort in 2004, said. "Just because you contest a number of elections doesn't mean you're going to produce the result you want."

But things are noticeably different in other states. Nationwide, more than six in 10 state legislative races have competition from both major parties, and in some states, it's nearly universal.

All 110 seats in Michigan's House of Representatives are up for grabs this cycle, and only one — a district representing parts of Detroit and Dearborn currently held by Democrat Rep. Karen Whitsett — has a single candidate on the ballot. The other 109 are all contested by both Democrats and Republicans, plus some third-party challengers.

Twelve other states have major-party competition in more than three out of four districts. Only six states including Massachusetts have four in 10 or fewer races contested by both major parties, according to Ballotpedia.

It's not a one-to-one trend, but there is some overlap between how many legislative races both parties challenge and how narrowly one party controls a state's legislature.

More than 90 percent of House contests this year have direct Democrat-versus-Republican races in Michigan, where Democrats have a two-seat majority, and in Minnesota, where Democrats have a six-seat majority.

Massachusetts is all the way at the other end of the spectrum. Its combined House and Senate ranks feature one of the largest supermajorities in the country, according to National Conference of State Legislatures data, and Ballotpedia dubbed it as home to the lowest rate of major-party challenges in the country.

"Right now, because [Massachusetts] reps have job security, they don't have the same incentive to make things happen in the span of the one term they might get," Hille said.

Craney similarly said legislative leaders might feel inclined to change their approach if they felt more "threatened," though he suggested more electoral challenges might not do all too much.

"They're going to continue to do what they want to do until they feel enough pressure to back down," Craney said.

Some of the Bay State's bottom ranking comes down to primary elections, too, especially given the size of its Democrat supermajority.

The rate of Massachusetts incumbents challenged in primaries this cycle is less than half the national average. Other states with lower incumbent challenge rates than Massachusetts are Arkansas (9.5 percent), New York (9.2 percent), Iowa (6.4 percent), Minnesota (6.1 percent), Connecticut (5.1 percent), Maine (4.8 percent) and Alaska (2.3 percent), a mix of traditionally Republican and Democrat strongholds plus some where the majority changes hands regularly.

Only Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska — whose members earn party endorsements but technically serve in a nonpartisan, unicameral legislature — saw 50 percent or more of their sitting lawmakers challenged this cycle, according to Ballotpedia.

Kerrigan, a former lieutenant governor nominee who has led the state Democratic Party since 2023, said he views the lack of competition as a sign that voters are "happy with the representation they have" and that elected legislators "understand the people they represent."

Some indicators suggest otherwise. A MassINC Polling Group survey of 800 likely voters last month found 47 percent somewhat or strongly disapprove of the job the Legislature is doing, compared to 42 percent who somewhat or strongly approve.

That's a noticeable drop from a year ago, when a prior MassINC poll found 51 percent approval and 32 percent disapproval for the Legislature's job performance.

A new poll published Wednesday from UMass Amherst and WCVB found 41 percent of Massachusetts residents think the state is on the "wrong track," the highest share in more than four years. Another 46 percent think the Bay State is on the right track, according to the poll.

UMass Amherst pollsters also asked Bay Staters about how they view the Legislature. In results published Wednesday, pollsters found 46 percent of respondents approve of the Legislature's job performance and 37 percent disapprove — more positive than the MassINC poll, but still a decline from the 57 percent approval and 28 percent disapproval when UMass asked the same question in April 2023.

Authors also crafted a word cloud to summarize how Massachusetts residents described the Legislature in one word. The most common answers included "good" and "fair" as well as "corrupt" and "useless."

Asked if he believed there was any connection between many incumbents cruising to additional terms and recent upheaval on Beacon Hill, Kerrigan replied, "I don't see it, but I don't blame folks for trying to find trendlines where they don't exist."

"That's what places like Ballotpedia do to remain relevant in the weeks leading up to an election — they issue reports like this, which is great, and it's interesting to read, but I take it as a point of pride that Massachusetts voters are happy with the representation they get," he said.

"We're a citizen legislature. It is ultimately up to the people to either send the message to their elected official that they agree or disagree, or if they really disagree, to recruit a neighbor, friend or coworker to challenge and to support them," Kerrigan added. "That's how all campaigns start. It's incumbent on all of us."

Hille disagreed. She argued that both major parties and other political power-brokers bear responsibility, not constituents, and should find ways to encourage more competition or reduce barriers that first-time candidates face.

Incumbents can amass massive war chests, giving them a baked-in advantage over any potential challengers. More than 30 sitting lawmakers had more than $100,000 in cash on hand in their campaign accounts at the end of September, according to state campaign finance data . At the top of the list is House Ways and Means Committee Chair Aaron Michlewitz, who is sitting on about $1.2 million and does not face any opponent this fall.

Hille pointed to a different finding from the September MassINC poll: 58 percent of respondents would like to see more candidates running for the Legislature, and only 19 percent think there are enough challengers.

"We already have a desire. The problem is people who want to run don't have the resources to do it," Hille said.