MLB Free Agency Predictions: Anticipated Landing Spots for Top 10 Players
The Fall Classic ended with another Dodgers win to kick off the time of the year where Los Angeles has truly thrived. Say hello to spending season.
After landing Shohei Ohtani—on a whopper contract anchored with deferred payments—to join a lineup that featured first baseman Freddie Freeman and the ultimate flex player in Mookie Betts, the Dodgers are planning to buy even more talent for the holidays. A few of their own free agents, including right-handers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler, are set to hit the market, but the real prizes are among the top 10 listed below.
Aug 26, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Juan Soto (22) salutes the Washington Nationals bench before an at bat during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY SportsPrediction: 13 years, $702 million with the New York Mets. Also in the running: Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Phillies, Rays, Blue Jays.
Soto set himself up for the biggest payday in MLB history after batting .288 with a .419 on-base percentage and .569 slugging for the Yankees in 2024. Not to mention a career-best 41 home runs, 129 walks, a league-leading 128 runs scored and 109 RBIs. And Soto didn't even turn 26 until October, when he helped lead the Yankees to their first World Series since 2009. Even if he doesn't eclipse $700 million , the value of his contract almost certainly will exceed Shohei Ohtani's heavily deferred deal.
Prediction: 1 year, $2 million minor-league deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Also in the running: the rest of MLB.
Surprise! Sasaki would have made more money (like Yoshinobu Yamamoto did a year ago ) had the Chiba Lotte Marines of NPB waited two more years to post him at age 25. Instead, the Marines obliged his wishes, so Sasaki will come to MLB but be subject to the same international free agent limitations that Ohtani was when he signed with the Angels in the 2017-2018 offseason. That puts Sasaki in every team's price range, and there will be a big demand for a 23-year-old who throws 96.9 mph and features a top-shelf split-finger fastball.
Aug 10, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY SportsPrediction: 6 years, $225 million with the Baltimore Orioles. Also in the running: Red Sox, Mets.
Burnes posted a 2.92 ERA with 181 strikeouts in 194 1/3 innings and has made at least 32 starts for three straight seasons. Having turned 30, Burnes gives indications he could be in decline, notably a decreased K% for a fourth straight season and diminishing returns on his cutter. No matter, he will bring a salivating market of suitors, and O's owner David Rubenstein needs to make a splash.
Sep 22, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) celebrates after hitting a home run during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn ImagesPrediction: 7 years, $176 million with the Detroit Tigers. Also in the running: Astros, Cubs.
Bregman batted .260/.315/.453 with a Gold Glove at third base. While not sexy results at the plate, Bregman's hitting was on par with his past five seasons, and he ranked 40-50 among all hitters in 2024.
Aug 2, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Blake Snell (7) pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the third inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY SportsPrediction: 5 years, $155 million with the New York Mets. Snell finished with solid results (3.12 ERA with 150 K's in 104 IP), despite signing late in free agency and missing several starts with minor injuries. Batters made weak contact against him (.263 slugging, 86 mph average exit velocity), and Snell had the best K% of his career (34.7%).
Sep 16, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn ImagesPrediction: 4 years, $125 million with the Braves. Also in the running: Yankees, Padres, Mets.
One of the 9-10 best starters in the league since 2019, he isn't huge with strikeouts, but he does keep the ball in the park. Had a forearm strain in 2023 but posted a 3.25 ERA in 29 starts in '24 at age 30. The Braves don't typically pay top dollar, but they also can't afford to let Fried walk.
Sep 2, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames (27) hits a 3-run home run in the first inning as St. Louis Cardinals catcher Pedro Pages (43) looks on at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY SportsPrediction: 6 years, $155 million with the Dodgers. Also in the mix: Giants, Braves.
Slugged .255/.331/.462 with 32 homers and 21 steals in 161 games for the Brewers. He showed a drop in his defensive metrics in '24 and might have to move to third base within 2-3 seasons.
Prediction: 6 years, $180 million with the Yankees. Also in the mix: Mets, Giants, Astros.
If they can't land Soto, the Yankees will take from the Mets. At age 29, hit .240/.329/.459 with 34 homers—the fewest of his career. Posted the weakest isolated power (.219) of his career, and the highest ground-ball rate (42%). One of the five best hitters at his position since 2019, but is closer in value to Rhys Hoskins than top dog Freddie Freeman.
Oct 18, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty (0) pitches against the New York Mets during the second inning of game five of the NLCS during the 2024 MLB playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn ImagesPrediction: 4 years, $100 million with the Giants. Also in the mix: Angels, Padres, Yankees.
Coming off years of arm trouble, Flaherty posted his best results since 2019, making 28 starts and finishing with a 3.17 ERA to go with 194 strikeouts in 162 innings. His K% dropped in the second half, and he had mixed results in the postseason.
Sep 19, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Anthony Santander (25) is greeted by teammates following his game winning two run home run in the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images
