Mystery 'Trump Whale' Wins $50 Million After Defying Polls
A mysterious online trader nicknamed the "Trump whale" reportedly made around $48 million in profit betting on Donald Trump to achieve a decisive victory in the 2024 presidential election.
The Wall Street Journal interviewed the man, identified as a French former bank trader using the assumed name "Théo," who said he commissioned his own "neighbor polls" to assist in his decision-making.
On Tuesday, Trump pulled off a dramatic election victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, securing at least 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, 25 more than needed for victory. The AP also reports that Trump is ahead in the two states it has yet to call, Arizona and Nevada, and is on track to win the popular vote.
Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, Théo, who declined to give his real name, said he made a series of bets via four anonymous accounts on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based online trading platform. Using accounts Theo4, Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, and Michie Théo placed bets on Trump securing the election, winning the popular vote and beating Harris in each of the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Théo placed over $30 million in bets, attracting attention online and leading him to be dubbed the "Trump whale." Cryptocurrency traders use the term whale to describe a person or business that has invested heavily in one particular market.
Théo insisted he had "absolutely no political agenda" and made the bets after becoming convinced polling had underestimated the "shy Trump voter effect," constituting Trump supporters who either lied about their voting intentions or avoided opinion polls altogether.
The trader said he also commissioned his own pops using the neighbor method, in which people are asked how they think their neighbors would vote rather than who they will vote for. The technique is designed to account for the shy voter phenomenon, though it is controversial with professional pollsters.
Théo described the results of these surveys as "mind-blowing to the favor of Trump," adding, "Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured that neighbor effect."
However, he declined to share his polls, saying they had been commissioned on the condition that they remain private.
A study by blockchain-analysis company Chainalysis, published by Business Insider, claimed Théo was linked to 11 Polymarket accounts, which made over $84 million.
Newsweek has been unable to independently confirm this and reached out to Polymarket for comment via email on Friday outside of regular office hours.
Around $3.7 billion was bet on the presidential election using Polymarket, which markets itself as "the world's largest prediction market."
On the morning of November 5 , Betfair, a U.K.-based bookmaker, told Newsweek it was offering odds of 4/6 (60 percent) on a Trump victory versus 6/4 (40 percent) for Harris. It projected that Trump would win the key swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania but lose the Rust Belt states of Michigan and Wisconsin, both of which he ended up winning.
After the election was called on Wednesday, William Hill had Vice President-elect JD Vance as the favorite to win the 2028 presidential election, followed by former first lady Michelle Obama and California Governor Gavin Newsom .
Speaking to Newsweek, William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said: "With Trump unable to challenge for a third term in 2028 due to the terms of the U.S. Constitution, we make his Vice President, JD Vance , the early favorite to win the 2028 U.S. election, priced at 3/1.
"As the Democrats lick their wounds after a bruising night of results, Michelle Obama, wife of former President Barack Obama , is 5/1 to lead the Democrats back to power in four years' time.
