National 2024 housing forecast shows prospective year for TN homebuyers

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Realtor.com’s 2024 housing forecast is showing home prices in Nashville will drop nearly 5%. Meanwhile, three other large cities in Tennessee are all listed as having a drop in sales.

According to the forecast, mortgage rates will go from 6.9% in 2023 to 6.8% in 2024 on a national level. However, Danielle Hale with Realtor.com believes the continuation of high costs will still have an effect on existing homeowners.

Affordability is a keyword in the report, as the median priced home listing is expected to be slightly less than $2,200 a month. This is a 2% decrease in monthly cost.

In terms of rental vacancy, new rentals will hit the market. The report shows in the third quarter of 2023, vacancy nationwide was at 6.6%. In 2024, experts believe this rate will be closer to the 7.2% average seen from 2013 to 2019.

After reviewing the data, Middle Tennessee real estate broker John Jones said he believes 2024 will show the exact opposite of the report.

“If we’ve kept them pretty flat for the past year, if rates go down, that’s bringing more people into the market, right? It’s bringing a lot more buyers, and you’ve got a pent up of demand of people who’ve just been waiting, how in the heck are prices going to go down?” Jones said.

“In Rutherford County right now, the average sales price last month was, I’m looking at it, was like $440,000. I really didn’t think, if you asked me this five years ago, ‘When do you think the average sales price will get to [$440,000] in Rutherford County? I’d say, ‘Man, probably when I’m about 80,'” he continued.

Both Jones and Realtor.com’s report cite the impact of geopolitics and inflation in 2024. This could bring unexpected changes, that can turn a good year into a bad year quick.

Jones advised homebuyers to make the purchase when you can afford to do so, and know that you can always refinance your mortgage rate. He blamed the lack of homes built within the past decade for the housing market’s current status.

Realtor.com listed data for the top 100 metropolitan areas , which includes the four largest Tennessee cities:

To check out October’s full housing report, click here .