NCSBE numbers show ‘unaffiliated’ make up highest number of absentee ballots so far

CHARLOTTE, N.C. ( QUEEN CITY NEWS ) — Republican and Democrat challengers have continued to spend millions in the state of North Carolina to target a base that could decide who wins the state and potentially the presidency in 2024.

Their aim has targeted swing voters, or those "unaffiliated" with a particular party.

Early numbers on absentee ballot requests indicated that "unaffiliated" voters now make up a larger number of absentee ballots, outnumbering Republicans and Democrats.

For reference, Democrats and Republicans were nearly tied with absentee ballot requests in 2016, far ahead of unaffiliated voters.

In 2020, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by more than double, while unaffiliated requests were just more than half of Democrat numbers.

UNC Charlotte Professor Dr. Eric Heberlig said he was shocked to see the numbers.

He said, "I think it is surprising that Independents are requesting more absentee ballots than Republicans or Democrats."

What exactly do these numbers show?

Michael Dickerson, the director for the Mecklenburg County Board of Elections, said it may not show much.

He explained, "This is going to be indicative of requests for the rest of the cycle up until the week before the election . . . I don't think it means anything, doesn't necessarily show anything except for—these people are interested in voting by mail."

Dr. Heberlig, however, believes the numbers could be an early indicator for voter engagement on Election Day.

"It gives us an idea of who's excited and who's mobilized," he said. "And it could tell us what Election Day turnout may look like."

Timeline: When will fall colors peak in NC and SC?

The idea of an "unaffiliated' voter, however, may be harder to decipher.

You would have to look at their past voting history to see if they vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries, which could show that while unaffiliated they have a higher lean to one party.

When it comes to swing votes, Dr. Heberlig explained, the target audience could be in the suburbs.

"Urban areas like we've seen across the country have shifted towards the Democrats . . . The suburbs also shifting towards the Democrats. . . you see a lot of migration into North Carolina," he explained.

"Moderate Republican voters from the Northeast aren't necessarily natural fits with the local Republicans. So they are more swing voters, particularly in the suburbs. So that's kept North Carolina really on a on a knife edge in terms of very even balance in statewide races."

On Friday, around 16,000 ballots were sent by email to military and overseas voters who are registered to vote in N.C.

Those ballots could start to be filled out and sent in by Saturday morning.

Tuesday, absentee ballots will be sent out to postal services for distribution.