New Analysis Boosts Trump Whale’s Polymarket Haul to $85 Million
(Bloomberg) - A French trader who made millions of dollars on Polymarket bets that Donald Trump would win the US presidential election may have profited more than initially estimated, thanks to a network of accounts that have been newly linked to his activity.
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As many as 11 accounts may be operated by the same trader, according to research conducted by blockchain analytics platform Chainalysis Inc. and seen by Bloomberg News. Best known by the username Fredi9999, the total profit he is expected to have made now amounts to more than $85 million.
An earlier estimate by Bloomberg had calculated a $48 million profit by analyzing the four accounts that were publicly attributed to Fredi9999 at the time. After conducting an investigation into his activities last month, Polymarket said the trader is a French national with extensive financial services experience.
"What really caused people to notice is the pattern in how these accounts are making bets," Adam Hart, investigations product manager at Chainalysis, said in an interview on Thursday.
Ten of the Polymarket accounts cashed out their winnings to two crypto exchange accounts, Hart said, strongly indicating a shared owner. An 11th account shared similar transaction and funding patterns as the other 10. A Polymarket spokesperson didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on the findings.
The updated estimate of winnings comes as France's gambling regulator said it is examining the operations of New York-based Polymarket to see if it complies with its rules.
Betting on Polymarket surged as traders rushed to wager on the US presidential election, with more than $3.6 billion in trading volume for predictions of which candidate would be victorious, according to Polymarket data. Polymarket isn't available to US users, following a 2022 settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in which the platform was accused of providing illegal gambling services.
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