New York could decide House control — and Jeffries’ and Hochul’s political futures
NEW YORK — House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Gov. Kathy Hochul have a lot on the line Tuesday, when New York voters decide whether to redeem them after their dismal showing in House races two years ago.
The whirlwind final days of the campaign found the leading Democrats crisscrossing the state, from Long Island to the Hudson Valley, hyping up candidates, voters and unions along the way. The New York politicians held high-energy rallies, presenting a united front as they fight to unseat five Republicans and make Jeffries the next House speaker. Jeffries also visited Syracuse over the weekend for John Mannion — the Democrats' best prospect for flipping a seat anywhere in the country — amid stumping in other states.
The get-out-the-vote sprint punctuated what has been a bitter campaign season that has underscored New York's role as a battleground for the House majority, despite its standing as a solid blue state in presidential races.
The stakes for Hochul and Jeffries are sky high.
She is keenly aware that this election represents a chance at retribution, after New York Democrats' House losses contributing to Republicans taking over the chamber two years ago. Another disappointing result would weaken the governor, while a successful night would help her fend off rivals looking to unseat her in 2026.
The races in New York will also play a leading role in the arc of Jeffries' future. If Democrats retake the House, he is poised to become the body's first Black speaker.
With all that in mind, Democrats have a new "coordinated campaign" this year, devoted to building their ground game.
"It's personal. I'm harnessing the power of the party to help our candidates like it's never been done before," Hochul told POLITICO, "including when I ran for office and asked for help from the state party and was flat out told, 'No.'"
The governor, who served in Congress from 2011 to 2013, has poured political capital and state party resources to help Democrats compete in seven battleground districts. They're taking on formidable first-term GOP incumbents like Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro , who have built reputations as political moderates through their frequent appearances on cable news.
Democrats and Republicans have proven they understand the central role that New York plays. They've spent millions upon millions of dollars on ads, and both Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have toured the Empire State to stump for their candidates in the week leading up to Election Day.
The Democrats' coordinated campaign , powered by 100 staff and 20,000 volunteers, had knocked more than 1 million doors as of last weekend. It's an infrastructure the governor says will outlast this cycle, so it's there when she and other Dems need it. Additionally, the Battleground New York coalition of progressive groups and unions has registered 25,000 voters in four congressional districts.
Republicans have their own intensive outreach operation, leaning in part on influential entities like the Nassau County GOP. And House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik of North Country remains their outspoken champion. The party has been encouraged by GOP turnout in the surge of New Yorkers casting their ballots early.
"Everywhere we've gone, our people are out. The enthusiasm is literally through the roof," Rep. Brandon Williams , the Syracuse-area Republican ranked the country's most vulnerable House incumbent , told POLITICO. He argued that voters are rejecting liberal policies up and down the ballot, saying, "I just think it's the mood of the country."
New York Democrats are banking on toppling at least two first-term Republicans here as their party seeks a net gain of four seats nationwide. The deep investments they've made are perhaps an act of penance after Republicans flipped four seats here in 2022 by single-digit margins.
The state's marquee and most competitive House races are: the central New York fight between Williams and John Mannion, the western Long Island rematch between Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and Laura Gillen, upstate's Molinaro versus Josh Riley and the very bitter Hudson Valley faceoff between Lawler and Mondaire Jones. The battleground races also include Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) versus Alison Esposito in the Hudson Valley and, on Long Island, Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) versus John Avlon and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) versus Mike LiPetri.
The candidates have battled in heated debates , costly ad wars and vicious social media exchanges on border security, migrants and crime, abortion rights , the Israel-Hamas war , ballot referendum Proposition 1 and economic policies like the CHIPS Act in central New York and the state and local tax deduction cap, or SALT , throughout the state. They've also fueled and fielded criticism over their affiliations with unpopular party heads including Hochul , New York City Mayor Eric Adams and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Democrats have sought to downplay the embarrassing House losses of 2022, with Hochul stressing her hard work and noting that California Democrats also underperformed that year after she was pointedly criticized by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), who has stumped for Ryan and other Democratic challengers, predicted his party will notch key victories this cycle.
"This is a different environment than last time around," Espaillat told POLITICO. "New York is looking at this race from a national optic. And of course, we don't share the values and the negative feelings of Donald Trump and his people — the majority of New Yorkers don't — and they will demonstrate that at the polls."
Trump, in particular, has been a focus of Democrats' closing argument.
"They've been very clear about what their intentions are in the House of Representatives if they hold the majority. They've been very clear about what they want to do with former President Donald Trump. Extreme MAGA Republicans want to take a blowtorch to Social Security," Jeffries said at a weekend rally for Avlon on Long Island, saying Medicare and the Affordable Care Act are under threat.
New York Republicans have found themselves forced to distance from positions some of their leaders have taken, stressing they would not vote with their party on a nationwide abortion ban and don't want to repeal popular entitlement programs.
Some have put their own spin on similar attacks, keeping Democrats on defense over how the Biden-Harris White House has managed an influx of migrants through the southern U.S. border.
"My opponent, Laura Gillen, supports amnesty for the individuals who have come across our southern border, wanting to give away social programs that you've paid into: Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare," D'Esposito said at a recent news conference.
Gillen has said she seeks a bipartisan deal to secure the border, arguing D'Esposito and his Republican colleagues had failed to do so this year because they were bending to Trump's will. Her campaign strategy echoes the playbook that led Suozzi to win his special election in February.
The D'Esposito-Gillen race, more than any other in New York, is a microcosm of the battle between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with the congressional candidates' closing arguments mirroring those made by the presidential contenders .
D'Esposito, a former cop, is appealing to his GOP and conservative base by blaming Democrats for problems in the country, especially for illegal immigration. Gillen, a former local elected official, is appealing across party lines, to those who want to move on from what Trump's critics describe as a divisive and vitriolic era in American politics.
"People are sick of the fighting, they're sick of the finger-pointing, they're sick of the hyperpartisanship. They want to see elected officials behave in a responsible, civil way and actually start working to get things done for them," Gillen told POLITICO. "Because while everybody in D.C. is fighting, nothing's happening."
