Padres vs. Diamondbacks prediction, odds, pick - 9/29/2024
The San Diego Padres will finish their regular season against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday at Chase Field. It's a potential wildcard preview as we share our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Padres-Diamondbacks Projected Starters
Martin Perez vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Martin Perez (5-5) with a 4.25 ERA
Last Start: Perez went 5 1/3 innings while allowing one earned run on two hits, striking out six, and walking three in a win over the Chicago White Sox.
Brandon Pfaadt (10-10) with a 4.80 ERA
Last Start: Pfaadt struggled in his last outing, going 2 2/3 innings while allowing five runs, four earned, on six hits while striking out four and walking two in a loss to the San Francisco Giants.
Here are the MLB Odds , courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Diamondbacks Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-150)
Moneyline: +142
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+125)
Moneyline: -168
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
How to Watch Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Time: 3:10 PM ET/12:10 PM PT
TV: None
Stream: fuboTV ( Free Trial )
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have clinched a playoff spot and will host a three-game wildcard series against the second wildcard spot. The Diamondbacks are holding onto that spot by a hair over the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. After beating the Diamondbacks on Friday night, the Padres have a greater chance of hurting their playoff chances even more with another win on Sunday. Ultimately, the Padres are uniquely positioned to eliminate a divisional rival or risk facing them again in a few days.
The Padres scored five runs on Friday, which was all they needed to win the first game. Luis Arraez thrived in this one, clubbing two doubles, in addition to a triple, to help power the Padres to victory. Likewise, Manny Machado battered a single for an RBI. Jackson Merrill also contributed with a single to give the Padres another run. It was one of those games that showed the depth the Padres have, especially considering that Fernando Tatis Jr. went 0 for 5. The Padres have Arraez, Tatis, Machado, and Jurickson Profar in the lineup. Don't forget about Xander Bogaerts. Therefore, this is a loaded lineup who can pick each other up when one falters.
Perez is looking for his first win against the Diamondbacks. Significantly, he is 0-1 with a 3.48 ERA over two starts against them in his career. When Perez exits, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 11th in baseball in team ERA. Robert Suarez is the closer and has done well this season, going 9-3 with a 2.77 ERA with 36 saves in 42 chances.
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks are in must-win mode. Significantly, they fell on Friday, which dropped them into a tie with the Braves and Mets, who are also battling for survival, along with two games on Monday. Then, they lost again on Saturday, which dropped them into a tie with the Mets for the final spot while the Braves moved up.
The offense needs to score more than three runs. Unfortunately, that is all they got on Friday. Corbin Carroll has improved after a sluggish start. Yet, his solo home run was not enough to do much. Ketel Marte was not great, striking out and going 0 for 3. Christian Walker also went 0 for 4. Overall, the Diamondbacks left nine runners on the basepaths. Things did not get much better on Saturday when they managed two measly hits, leaving seven runners stranded.
Pfaadt is looking for his first win against the Padres. Unfortunately, he is 0-2 with a 3.81 ERA over five games against them in his career. When Pfaadt exits the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 24th in baseball in team ERA. Sadly, the Diamondbacks don't have an established closer, especially with Paul Sewald out with an injury.
The Diamondbacks will cover the spread if they can drive runners home and avoid leaving too many runners on base. Then, they need a good outing from Pfaadt and for the bullpen to avoid collapsing.
Final Padres-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
The Padres are 7-5 against the Diamondbacks this season, so it's been a tight battle all season. San Diego is 84-77 against the run line, while Arizona is 82-79. Furthermore, the Padres are 49-30 against the run line on the road, while the Diamondbacks are 35-45. The Padres are on fire right now and heating up for the playoffs. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are withering. This looks like another game that the Padres may thrive in, covering the spread on the road and sweeping the Diamondbacks to end their season.
