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Playoff rankings a reminder Ohio State and Michigan about to play unique edition of The Game

R.Green3 months ago

COLUMBUS, Ohio — On quality of wins alone, the College Football Playoff selection committee could have justified jumping Washington over both Ohio State and Michigan on Tuesday.

After winning at Oregon State last week, the Huskies own three top-16 victories in the updated rankings. (The lowest one being the one over the Beavers, who oddly fell five spots.) Ohio State owns two, and Michigan still has only one.

Washington did move up, though it only jumped Florida State to No. 4. Ohio State and Michigan remain at Nos. 2-3, respectively, ahead of Saturday’s edition of The Game.

While the Huskies now have an edge in terms of ranked wins, both of the Big Ten rivals have an edge in totality of performance. Selection committee chair Boo Corrigan pushed back on that a bit, pointing to Washington’s streak of 20 points allowed over its last six quarters.

(Talk about your cherry picked stats. Washington gave up 28 first-half points to Utah, then none in the second half, then 20 to Oregon State, winning by two.)

Regardless, here is how those three teams line up nationally:

Offensive yards per play

Defensive yards per play

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That’s a raw stat and a somewhat incomplete measurement, since it does not account for garbage time plays, strength of schedule, etc. But it says something that the Huskies’ defense barely ranks in the top half of Football Bowl Subdivision teams.

Saturday’s The Game is likely a playoff eliminator. Next year, though, these discussions will mean much more. How the committee weighs resume against eye test will determine who hosts first-round playoff games, or who makes the field at all at the bottom of the 12-team field.

For now, it underscores The Game we will see on Saturday likely will not resemble any in the past several years.

The winning team has scored at least 42 points in each of the past four years. (Average total score of those games: 80.3.) You have to go back to 2012 for a game where the winning team only scored in the 20s. (Would have been 2016, too, but regulation wasn’t enough to decide the winner.)

As of Tuesday night, the betting over/under point total hovered at 46. The winning team has scored at least 42 points in seven of the last nine meetings.

Two elite defenses will play Saturday at Michigan Stadium. Whoever wins might later find out how it stacks up against Washington’s prolific offense. If the Huskies’ defense does not let them down before that.

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