Political Strategists' Advice for Harris and Trump Campaigns in PA

We've officially entered the home stretch of the presidential campaign, when things get wacky in the pursuit of swing-state voters. Donald Trump is swaying to James Brown. He's also going to work the fryer at a McDonald's this weekend. Meanwhile, Barack Obama is sounding like a scary principal . And Kamala Harris just went on Fox News.

Can't wait to see what the candidates and their surrogates have in store for Halloween.

Although presidential campaigns can be won or lost in the final month, rarely do you find any consensus on how a candidate should approach the finish line. With three weeks to go, every piece of strategy and media appearance is getting dissected and second-guessed. Case in point: Legendary Democratic political strategist James Carville, for one, has been critical of the recent media blitz by Harris — who's been appearing on podcasts and stations galore over the past two weeks — while other experts have been recommending exactly what she's doing.

What's known for sure is that Pennsylvania will have a lot to say in the final outcome, and by virtue of that, the voters in Philadelphia. Just look at recent history: Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes and Joe Biden won it by 80,000 votes. The difference? Philadelphia voter turnout was almost 10 percent higher in 2020.

"If I were Trump, I would be playing a lot of golf." — Rich Thau, The Swing Voter Project

While Philly wasn't the only factor in Democrats winning the state, Biden's campaign showed a successful blueprint for victory: running up the score in Philly .

But there are serious doubts about a repeat performance for Harris. Voter turnout has been slumping since 2020 — we had a mere in last November's mayoral election — and further, Trump has been making inroads with traditional Democratic voters, like Black men, with whom he's been polling strongly. Then there was the Politico report from a few days ago, littered with grievances about alleged missteps in the local Harris get-out-the-vote operation.

There's a seemingly endless well of opinions about what the candidates be doing at this stage. We spoke to seven political insiders about their thoughts on how the candidates should approach their closing arguments in trying to mobilize voters in Philly and across Pennsylvania.

Rich Thau, the creator and moderator of The Swing Voter Project

"If I were [Trump], I would be playing a lot of golf," says Thau. "There's a lot of nostalgia for how the economy was prior to the pandemic. So, every public appearance undercuts the confidence of people who are at the margins; the reality of the candidate distracts from their desire to see that economy again."

Keeping a low profile and allowing the advertisements to speak for themselves could be to Trump's advantage. "I think the single-most effective ad in this campaign has been [Trump's] ad about using tax dollars to give gender-reassignment surgeries to prisoners," says Thau. That ad, he says, accomplishes three things: One, it helps ignite parts of his base with a bias against transgender people. Two, for those who don't hold that bias, it labels his opponent as a reckless Big Government over-spender — someone who's willing to subsidize a surgery that non-prisoners could never afford. "Third, the ad reinforces how Kamala Harris doesn't share your values, that she's not like you — but instead is part of some 'movement' that you're not part of," says Thau.

As for Harris, Thau has been contemplating two strategies for her closing argument that could make a difference. Through his Swing Voter Project, Thau has been speaking to PA focus groups regularly throughout the year, including Trump-to-Biden voters who "still have no clue what her economic plan is," Thau says. "My first piece of advice would be to make it explicit that you have an economic plan and that the specifics of that plan are accessible to everybody." He adds that the vice president could easily add QR codes to her ads, and encourage people to download and read the plan for themselves. Even if they don't bother to do it, they'll still infer from her pitch that she's transparent and solutions-oriented.

Going on the offensive regarding the tariffs Trump enacted on goods from China could help, too. "When I ask people, even ones leaning toward Trump, how they feel about a 20-percent tariff on imported goods, their heads explode," says Thau. "Trump is uniquely vulnerable on that issue; voters are having a hard time making ends meet. They think the economy is lousy. And if she stressed that Trump's not going to make things more affordable to them, but he's going to make it worse for them, I think that would have quite an impact."

Neil Oxman, Democratic political consultant and president of the Campaign Group

"Everybody knows that [Trump's] bad on abortion. Everybody knows that he's scary on democracy. But [the Democrats] have to open up other veins of attack to make him more of the devil," says Oxman, "and you can capture that by taking all the slurry words and misstatements that he says and running the clips."

Also pointing to the pro-Trump ad about gender-reassignment surgeries, Oxman says that Democrats could do more to be loud and in-your-face in these closing weeks — fighting Trump with his own energy. "Throw the kitchen sink at him. You have to," Oxman says. "Don't let him get away with being Trump."

"Do what Harris did brilliantly during the debates. Hit him wherever it hurts. Get him off track. Attack." — Republican media strategist Elliot Curson

No further debates means Harris won't have the chance to do that by standing next to Trump. "They're on railroad tracks running separately, and I think it's been better for Trump, because I think Trump's punches against her have been more lethal." So instead, the Harris campaign will have to issue reminder after reminder of whom the public would be electing with her opponent.

And if he was advising Trump? It's simple: "Over the next 19 days, don't be crazy. Don't talk about people eating cats and dogs."

Chris Mottola, Republican political strategist, Chris Mottola Consulting, Inc.

Both candidates have to do the same thing, according to Mottola, and there's a simple path for each of them to do it. "In the latest Marquette poll, 79 percent of the country thinks we are going in the wrong direction," he says. "It doesn't take a brain surgeon to know you need to be the candidate for change."

To do that, Trump must overcome his age (78 years old) and the recency of his term. But there's an antidote in his running mate. "If I am Trump, what I do is I campaign with JD Vance," says Mottola. While Vance initially appeared to be a liability for Trump, he's turned into an asset of late, says Mottola, noting the debate performance against Tim Walz and a contentious interview with ABC's Martha Raddatz, which played well with the base. "I'd want to be seen with the younger, more modern-looking and modern-feeling heir apparent."

Harris has separate challenges with being viewed as a change agent, namely that she's vice president . "Harris needs to have a clean break from Biden — on something," says Mottola. "For Christ's sake, how hard is it to come up with a couple of policies that you differ from the administration on, in substantive and meaningful ways?"

Mottola looks to the 1968 presidential race for an instructive example. In that election, the Democratic nominee was Hubert Humphrey, who was vice president to Lyndon Baines Johnson. Once the public had soured on the Vietnam War, Humphrey, who was trailing in the polls, broke with his boss and told voters that he'd pull the troops out. "Once he finally broke with LBJ, [Humphrey] rapidly caught up and almost passed Nixon in an extraordinarily close election."

Will either campaign follow that advice? Mottola isn't betting on it. "I think that there are probably internal campaign problems that may prevent them from doing it," says Mottola, who points to reports of infighting within the Harris camp. And as for Trump, "He wants to be the center of attention all the time. Will he allow himself to run as a team?"

Tricia Mueller, founder of Groundwork Strategies, a public affairs and political consultancy

"Now is not the time to point fingers," says Mueller, referring to recent s in Politico and The Inquirer which reported on riffs between national campaign staff and local Democratic leaders. "It takes the entire party to be able to pull off something like this."

Right now people are blocking out the relentless television ads, says Mueller, and the key to victory going forward — for either candidate — will be who can successfully reach voters in person. "For these last three weeks, it's all about voter contact."

"I think that sometimes in all of this, we lose the art of respecting the voter," says Mueller. "It's one thing to go heavy on TV or digital advertisements. or mail, and it's another thing to approach voters as humans and as citizens, to have that discourse."

And that's why closing ranks within the party is so essential at this stage in the race. While both candidates try their best to be omnipresent, they can only be in one place at a time. Winning the White House requires local leaders, from elected officials on down to block captains, to buy into the mission. "It should be a pretty straightforward task: go contact your mid-to-high propensity voters and make sure that we're not taking their votes for granted," says Mueller.

Mustafa Rashed, Democratic political strategist, President / CEO of Bellevue Strategies

The honeymoon phase of the Harris campaign — which launched in late July to much fanfare — has been over for quite some time. The aura from her debate performance, while memorable, has also faded. In fact, it was never going to result in a decisive knockout of Trump with months still to go in the race.

It's become clear in this recent push from Harris that she's trying to address questions about her policies and to better define who she is as a person. That goal is a smart one, says Rashed. "I think the strategy of was not quite working, because there was just too much clock to run out," says Rashed. "The Vice President has a dual task of introducing herself to voters and convincing them to vote for her. It's a lot of ground to cover in a large state."

"Throw the kitchen sink at him. You have to. Don't let him get away with being Trump." — Neil Oxman

What's not yet clear is whether Harris is succeeding in doing that. For example, the campaign's recent efforts to court Black male voters have received mixed reviews. On Monday in Erie, Harris revealed a five-point " opportunity agenda for Black men ." It's an eclectic mix of policies and priorities: a low-interest loan program for Black entrepreneurs, protections around cryptocurrency, and the legalization of marijuana nationwide. Days later, the campaign clarified that those programs would be open to Americans, not exclusively Black men.

"Because of the condensed calendar, the Vice President's campaign is operating without the benefit of a feedback loop to let them know what might be working and what isn't," says Rashed. "It may feel like there's a strategy of trying everything and seeing what might stick, though it remains to be seen what will give Harris traction."

As for Trump, Rashed says, there's little juice left to squeeze with trying to appeal to new voters outside of his traditional base. "There isn't anyone that's undecided about who he is or what he stands for," he says. "I think his goal in Pennsylvania is to get people to stay home instead of voting for the vice president."

Larry Ceisler, longtime public-affairs executive and founder of Ceisler Media

"Joe Biden won Pennsylvania four years ago because he performed better in the non-urban and suburban counties in Pennsylvania than Hillary Clinton — whether it was in my home county of Washington County in Western Pennsylvania, or northeastern Pennsylvania, or Lackawanna County," says Ceisler. "I just don't think Kamala Harris is going to do as well as Biden in those places."

That puts the onus on the city of Philadelphia, where turnout, despite the 2020 spike, has been diminishing over the last few cycles. And the key to turning it around in Philly, Ceisler says, is the newly-elected mayor. "I believe that Cherelle Parker is one of the most — if not — critical individual for the election of Kamala Harris in the country," says Ceisler, echoing the sentiment of local Democratic leaders critical of Harris's PA campaigning. "She's a leader. She has a personality. She can articulate the stakes. And if I was one of Harris's people, I would say .

Where I think Harris has an advantage in Pennsylvania is if she uses Cherelle Parker, Gov. Josh Shapiro, and Sen. John Fetterman. Between the three of them, their playbooks basically lay out how a Democrat can win Pennsylvania. I think it's really as simple as that."

Elliott Curson, a Republican media strategist who ran Ronald Reagan's ad campaign — among many others — in his 1980 presidential election

In these final days, there's an urgency to deliver a strong closing argument to moderates. For the Trump campaign, Curson believes that it's going to be a tough sell. "When I talk to [moderate] Republicans, they don't like him," says Curson. "Who in good conscience wants to vote for somebody who advocated for the overthrow of the government, like we're a third world country?"

And yet, the door is still cracked open. "I believe that a lot of them don't make up their minds until Election Day," says Curson. "People say there's no time. There's plenty of time — of time."

His advice for Harris is more straightforward: Manufacture opportunities to keep prodding her opponent and reminding the electorate of his character. "Do what Harris did brilliantly during the debates," he says. "Hit him wherever it hurts. Get him off track. Attack."

Most of all, Curson would like to see Harris embody strength and courage at every turn. To that end, Curson emailed me the morning after Harris appeared on Fox News — "enemy territory" in his words — and came out unscathed. "They're getting it right," Curson wrote of the Harris campaign.