Theathletic

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

C.Thompson3 months ago

Heading into championship weekend, eight teams — Georgia , Michigan , Washington , Oregon , Florida State , Texas , Alabama and Ohio State (barely) — can still reach the College Football Playoff. That’s the highest there have been in the 10-year CFP era.

Only three times have there been seven, in 2015, 2017 and 2019, but even in those, one or more teams would have needed to pull an unlikely conference championship upset. What stands out about this year’s field is the seven teams playing this weekend are all reasonable picks to win their respective title games. It wouldn’t take much to unleash chaos.

Including what would arguably be the toughest decision the committee has ever faced: Alabama beating Georgia, and the No. 4 seed coming down to a 13-0 Florida State team without its star quarterback or the 12-1 two-time defending national champs.

Even discarding the non-possibility of Iowa upsetting Michigan (you can throw this back in my face if the Hawkeyes pull off a 3-2 win), there are 16 possible combinations of results involving the ACC (Florida State- Louisville ), Big 12 (Texas- Oklahoma State ), Pac-12 (Washington-Oregon) and SEC (Georgia-Alabama) championship games. Below, I predict how the committee would rank the top five teams after each set of results.

For these purposes, I’m predicting the committee on Tuesday drops Ohio State from No. 2 to No. 5 following its 30-24 road loss to Michigan, behind the four undefeated teams but highest of the one-loss teams, but knowing any of Oregon, Texas or Alabama would pass the Buckeyes if they win this weekend.

Georgia is looking to complete college football’s first three-peat since Minnesota did it from 1934-36. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(13-0)
(13-0)
—
(12-1)

Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 2: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Oklahoma State win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(13-0)
(13-0)
—
(11-1)

I take it back: This one is even more straightforward.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(13-0)
(12-1)
—
(11-1)

As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.

Scenario 4: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(13-0)
(11-1)
—
(12-1)

This is the only of the 16 scenarios where I have Ohio State making it, and it requires a perfect storm. The Buckeyes need both the ACC and Big 12 to knock themselves out, opening the door for a conference to get two berths. Which means they also need Oregon to lose.

Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(12-1)
(13-0)
—
(12-1)

The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.

Scenario 6: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Oklahoma State win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(12-1)
(13-0)
—
(12-1)

It’s possible the committee would consider keeping the Huskies in the top four given they’d still likely have four Top 25 wins (Oregon, Arizona , Oregon State and Utah ). But, I’ll believe they leave out a 13-0 team when I see it.

Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(12-1)
(12-1)
—
(12-1)

Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.

Scenario 8: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(12-1)
(12-1)
—
(11-1)

This is the one scenario where I could see the Pac-12 getting two teams in. Washington’s resume would be superior to Ohio State’s.

Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(12-1)
(13-0)
—
(12-1)

Every scenario from here involves Alabama knocking off Georgia, and they’re all messy. But in none of them does undefeated FSU get left out. Also, Alabama moving all the way up to No. 3 would render its head-to-head loss to Texas moot.

’s three-peat hopes depend on beating familiar nemesis

Scenario 10: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Oklahoma State win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(12-1)
(13-0)
—
(12-1)

Same.

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(12-1)
(12-1)
—
(12-1)

Georgia stays in if Florida State loses.

Scenario 12: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

(13-0)
(13-0)
(12-1)
(12-1)
—
(11-1)

Georgia over Ohio State is not much of an open-and-shut case.

Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.

(13-0)
(12-1)
(12-1)
(13-0)
—
(12-1)

Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.