Prudential’s China-Fueled Slump Leaves Stock Ripe for a Rebound

(Bloomberg) - Prudential Plc shares have fallen so far this year amid worries over the insurer's China exposure that they now offer the most implied upside of any stock in the FTSE 100 index, based on average analyst price targets.

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The London-listed company, which gets the bulk of its business from Asia, has lost 30% of its value in 2024 in its worst yearly performance since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Stocks exposed to China have been hit particularly hard since Donald Trump won the US election on prospects his proposed protectionist measures could spark a global trade war.

Yet analysts are optimistic. The stock has 20 buy ratings, three holds and no sells, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average 12-month price target sees the shares gaining about 80%, the most of any stock in the UK benchmark.

"It feels like a fantastic buying opportunity for a long-term investor with a two or three year view, so if you are one of those investors I would pick it up now and not overthink it," Panmure Liberum analyst Abid Hussain said. "The de-rating now prices in exceptionally bad news."

Prudential is also catching the attention of investors. Martin Walker, head of UK equities at Invesco Asset Management Ltd., says the stock has been caught up in negative sentiment around China, which presents an opportunity.

"Should sentiment improve towards emerging markets, and that could happen, then there's clearly an opportunity here," Walker said in a recent interview. "There's also an opportunity here from a microeconomic stock-specific perspective, which is that they execute on their business plan, and I think both of those happening together could be quite powerful for the shares."

Chief Executive Officer Anil Wadhwani unveiled a plan last year to more than double its new business profit to $5.4 billion by 2027 compared with 2022, implying 20% annual growth.

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