Rain opportunity as dryness and fire weather persist in Northeast

The last thorough soaking in most of the Northeast was in late September. The dry conditions have not only increased the risk of wildfires but have also caused streams and reservoirs to drop to low levels. While AccuWeather meteorologists say some rain is coming to the Northeast, it may not have a huge impact on the drought conditions that continue to build in the region.

No doubt, the weather pattern, which has featured plenty of unusually warm days, has been great for outdoor plans, construction projects and travel in general. However, the building dryness in October has escalated to a serious drought.

The combination of dry brush, fallen leaves, warm days and windy episodes have created ideal brush fire weather conditions.

In some cases in the Northeast, the current 30- to 60-day stretch has never been drier since records have been kept. At Trenton, New Jersey, the all-time record of consecutive days with no measurable rain has been broken. The old record was 38 days from April to May in 1903. Records date back to the conclusion of the Civil War in 1865.

Since late September, New York City has received only 0.01 of an inch of rain while only a few drops have fallen on Philadelphia. In both examples, evaporation and the lack of rain have dried the soil and brush and caused stream and river levels to plummet.

According to the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection , reservoir levels in much of the state have dipped to around 60% of capacity.

During a typical year, when rainfall is close to the historical average, reservoir levels tend to reach full capacity in the late spring then drop gradually during the summer to the early autumn as demand draws upon the water. From winter to spring, water levels tend to rise as rainfall and runoff exceed demand. However, this autumn, reservoirs have dropped to levels that are much lower than average and were plummeting quickly due to the lack of rain.

Some reservoirs have taken on a look similar to the California drought from a few years ago.

The only condition preventing a very serious problem is the low demand for water this time of the year, relative to the high summertime demands from agricultural and landscape interests.

AccuWeather meteorologists have cited some opportunities for rainfall in the past week or so, but as predicted, these have been light and sporadic. The Appalachians screened out much of the rain that approached from the Midwest in recent weeks. There has been no strong influx of Atlantic moisture near the coast to keep the rain thriving as it moved in.

Another opportunity for more general rainfall will arise this weekend to early next week, even though moisture from Hurricane Rafael is out of the picture. A non-tropical storm will have already tapped into a significant amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture and should have time to grab a bit from the Atlantic before moving away.

"Many areas should experience rain from Sunday to Sunday night in the Northeast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "It looks like a 0.10 of an inch to as much as 0.50 of an inch in many areas."

"This sort of rain is certainly not enough to really help out with the ongoing drought conditions, but it would be enough to soak the top layer of the soil and brush, which will reduce the chance for blowing dust behind the front and wildfire ignition and spread on Monday as westerly winds pick up," Anderson added.

The light rainfall heading for the region can cause problems on the area's roads, so drivers are urged to use caution.

"Since it has been so dry recently, the initial rainfall in many areas may contribute to some slick spots on roadways as the water mixes with some oil left about on the top surface of the asphalt and concrete," Anderson said.

Along with the upcoming rain, temperatures will be on the slide and will end up close to the historical average for the second week of November this weekend. Temperatures are projected to swing to back above the historical average early next week but not to the record levels of recent days.