Ranking '24 rookies based on long-term value
The Rookie of the Year Award winners will be announced Monday, with the National League featuring one of the closest three-way races ever.
Who had the better season between Jackson Chourio, who recorded the third-ever 20/20 season by a rookie age 20 or younger; Jackson Merrill, who made an easy transition from shortstop to center fielder while earning All-Star and Silver Slugger honors; and Paul Skenes, who became the first player to reach the All-Star Game in the year immediately after he was drafted?
We've ranked rookies based on long-term value for the past 10 seasons, and this is the toughest trio to separate since Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Shohei Ohtani vs. Juan Soto in 2018. Chourio has more dynamic tools than Merrill, who's a better pure hitter, while Skenes already can make a case for being the best pitcher in the Majors.
You could list those players in any order and easily support your argument. The call here is the position players over Skenes because of the fragility of pitchers, and Chourio over Merrill because he's a year younger and has more upside. It will be great fun to watch how their careers play out over the next 15-20 years.
As always, our rankings take into account more than present-year performance. We look at past track record and future projection, and the age at which a player makes his mark in the Majors correlates strongly with his career value (which is why we list seasonal age as of July 1 in parentheses). Position players are less volatile than pitchers, so that's another factor to consider.
We only rank players who have graduated from rookie status by exceeding 130 at-bats, 50 innings or 45 days of active service time. Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews, Yankees outfielder Jasson Domínguez, Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson and Reds right-hander Rhett Lowder are four Top 100 prospects who came close this summer but didn't exceed those limits.
Chourio not only joined Vada Pinson and Mike Trout as the lone 20/20 players at age 20, but he also batted .310/.363/.552 after the All-Star break. He finished with 3.8 WAR (Baseball Reference style), and all seven rookies age 20 or younger who did that and have completed their careers wound up in the Hall of Fame: Roberto Alomar, Johnny Bench, Rogers Hornsby, Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, Arky Vaughan and Ted Williams.
Merrill also boosted his performance in the second half, slashing .314/.349/.596 and ranking eighth in the Majors with a 159 wRC+ that ranked behind only Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor.
Among rookies age 22 or younger who worked at least 125 innings, Skenes posted the best ERA+ (214), the best ERA (1.96) and the second-best K/BB ratio (5.3) since the lively ball was introduced in 1920, the third-best strikeout rate (11.5 per nine innings) and the sixth-best hit rate (6.4 per nine).
A slam-dunk choice as the No. 1 overall prospect in the game heading into the season, Holliday surprisingly hit just .189/.255/.311 with a 33 percent strikeout rate in his 60-game debut. We'll still bet on his bat.
Since the Draft era began, only Pete Incaviglia (zero games) and John Olerud (six) made an Opening Day roster with less pro experience than Langford (44). One of just 11 players to reach double figures in homers and steals after the All-Star break, he has 30/30 upside.
Potentially the best of the five youngsters the Nationals received from the Padres in the 2022 Juan Soto trade, Wood posted an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph and sprint speed of 28.7 mph in his 79-game debut. Oneil Cruz and Gunnar Henderson were the only big leaguers to best him in both categories.
A potential home run champion with a lightning-quick bat, Caminero ranked seventh among Major Leaguers (minimum 250 swings) with an average bat speed of 77.2 mph - just ahead of Judge.
The best infield defender on this list, Winn topped big league shortstops with 14 Defensive Runs Saved and ranked second at the position behind only Cruz by clocking 92.7 mph on the top 5 percent of his throws. He also ranked third behind Merrill and Chourio among rookies with 52 extra-base hits.
A stress reaction in his back ruined Carter's rookie season, but the Rangers wouldn't have made the playoffs or won the World Series in 2023 without his contributions in all phases of the game. Few players can match his combination of plate discipline and speed.
Yamamoto's three main pitches (fastball, splitter, curveball) all played as plus or better and helped him post a dominant 4.8 K/BB ratio even while battling a shoulder injury that cost him three months. After a rough postseason debut, he allowed just three runs in his final three starts to help the Dodgers win the championship.
A future Gold Glover, Armstrong led all big league outfielders in Fielding Run Value (17) while ranking in the 96th percentile or better in range, arm strength and sprint speed. He also improved significantly at the plate after the All-Star break, boosting his OPS from .582 to .736.
A prototypical offensive second baseman, Keith has a knack for barreling balls and was a Silver Slugger finalist after placing second among rookie middle infielders with 13 homers.
Though he was eclipsed by Skenes, Schwellenbach logged a better K/BB ratio (5.5) thanks to a wipeout splitter and four other offerings (four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, cutter) that are better than average.
Harrison's arm-side run and extension help his low-90s fastball miss a ton of bats, and he can become one of the game's top southpaws if he continues to refine his secondary pitches and strikes.
Jones dominated in his first nine starts of the year (2.89 ERA, 63/7 K/BB in 53 IP) before tailing off when his control and command slipped. His velocity stands out, as he averaged 97.3 mph with his fastball (fourth among the 141 hurlers who threw 1,500 or more pitches), 89.9 mph with his changeup (fifth), 88.8 mph with his slider (seventh) and 81.5 mph with his curve (22nd).
