Rematch pits Republican US Rep. Don Bacon against Democrat Tony Vargas in Nebraska's 2nd District

Nebraska voters will elect representatives for the state's three U.S. House seats Tuesday, and those in the state's Omaha-centric 2nd District will not only decide one of the country's most competitive House races, they could also affect the outcome of the presidential race.

In a rematch of the 2022 race, Republican incumbent Don Bacon faces a strong challenge from Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas. Recent polls show a tight race in the state's most demographically and politically diverse district. Both candidates sought to depict themselves as pragmatic problem-solvers who eschew their parties' partisan fringes.

The district also has a recent history of backing Democratic presidential candidates in an otherwise solidly Republican state that allows three of its five Electoral College votes to go to the winners in each congressional district, with the other two going to the state's overall winner. Nebraska's 2nd District has twice awarded its one vote to Democratic presidential candidates — to Barack Obama in 2008 and to Joe Biden in 2020.

A single electoral vote would normally draw little attention, but with polls showing this year's presidential race to be tight, that vote has taken on outsized importance in the candidates' efforts to gain the 270 needed to win. Scenarios have been mapped out in which both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could find a single electoral vote from Nebraska handing them a win.

This oddity has led Harris and Democratic groups backing her to spend millions of dollars in the Omaha district on campaign ads and on-the-ground campaign staff in the hopes of winning its electoral vote. Trump's campaign and Republican groups have spent far less following a failed attempt to goad the Republican-dominated Legislature to rewrite the state's rules and change Nebraska to a winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes.

Vargas hopes to find himself riding a wave of support for the Democratic presidential ticket that includes vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, a Nebraska native. Vargas is expected to draw universal support from Democratic voters who make up more than a third of the district's electorate. But he's also aiming to draw heavily from the nearly 30% of district voters who identify as independent and third-party supporters and even some Republicans disillusioned with Trump.

To that end, Vargas' campaign has run ads aimed at more moderate and conservative voters, including ones focused on reducing illegal immigration at the U.S. southern border, cutting taxes for the middle class and being tough on crime.

Bacon has touted himself in ads as a bipartisan centrist in an effort to draw voters from outside the Republican base. But he has sought to walk a fine line in the swing district, often turning to social media to cater to his Republican base, including by using it to tout his unwavering support for Israel in its war with Hamas and defending his vote against a bipartisan border security bill.

Flood was first elected to the seat in a June 2022 special election to replace former GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, who resigned in the wake of a criminal case accusing him of lying to federal agents. Flood has taken a harder conservative tack in this campaign than he had in previous ones, ramping up his support of Trump and accusing Democrats of causing an immigration crisis.

Blood, a state lawmaker from Bellevue who served in the legislature with Flood from 2020 through part of 2022, is hoping that women and other voters frustrated by Republican support for abortion restrictions and Trump will swing the vote in her favor.

Republican Rep. Adrian Smith is expected to easily win a 10th term representing Nebraska's vast rural 3rd Congressional District. Smith is facing a challenge from Democrat Daniel Ebers, a farmer from Overton. Over the years, 3rd District voters have shown no signs of discontent with Smith, one of the most conservative members of Congress.

Smith's political leanings are in keeping with those of the district. It's not only Nebraska's most conservative, it's considered one of the most conservative districts in the country. Smith has won the last three elections with roughly 80% of the vote.

Wisconsin voters will get a chance in Tuesday's elections to shift the balance of power in the Legislature and decide whether to explicitly forbid foreign nationals from ever voting in the state.