Republicans, Democrats focus on a handful of swing legislative seats

Sep. 21—Former state Rep. Rebecca Dow of Truth or Consequences packed up her belongings in January and moved just a few minutes from the house where she had been living for years.

No, she wasn't downsizing or moving closer to work.

The move was political, designed to help Dow reclaim her old legislative seat after a redistricting, or redrawing of political boundaries, pushed her into the House district of fellow Republican Rep. Gail Armstrong of Magdalena.

"I didn't leave my home," Dow said Friday. "I left a house. District 38 is my home, and I did it because New Mexico desperately needs balance."

The high-stakes battle for House District 38, arguably the most competitive and closely watched legislative race of this year's election cycle, pits Dow against freshman Democrat Rep. Tara Jaramillo.

Jaramillo said holding onto the seat, which had previously been held by a Republican for decades, isn't just a priority for the Democratic Party but the No. 1 priority.

"If you just look at the surrounding areas, Valencia County is red, Sierra is red, Catron is red [and then] there's me, this blue dot," she said.

While every seat in the Legislature is up for election in November, the vast majority of legislative races are essentially already decided. Sixty-four of the 112 seats in both chambers are uncontested, and others are so red or blue that there is no real chance they will flip. Democrats, who hold majorities in both the Senate and the House, are all but guaranteed to maintain control.

But the hard-fought race between Dow and Jaramillo illustrates a push by Republicans and Democrats alike to keep — or flip — as many legislative seats as possible in the general election.

"I don't know that the Democrats will flip any [seats in the Senate] to the Democrat side," Senate Republican Whip Craig Brandt said. "I think that the Republican seats, as long as we run good races — and we have good candidates — that we'll keep what we have, and I think we have a possibility of picking up three or four seats."

Up for grabs

In the Senate, the seat Republicans consider the most winnable is District 12, which Democrats dubbed the "sacrificial seat" in the 2021 redistricting after areas of Democratic-leaning Bernalillo County were moved to other districts while conservative parts of Sandoval County were added.

The seat opened up after Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino, an Albuquerque Democrat, opted not to seek another term after two decades in office, putting the district in play.

"They cut it into six pieces [in redistricting] and gave it to six Democratic-leaning districts to strengthen them," Ortiz y Pino said in an interview last year.

Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block, a Republican running for the seat against Democrat Phillip Ramirez, said it's now a "totally different district" he predicts he'll win.

"It's in a totally different area," said Block, who also sought the Republican nomination for governor in 2022. "Most of the district is in Rio Rancho, which I currently represent on the commission. Everybody knows me up there. I got the name recognition."

Ramirez, who runs a small construction company, acknowledged it'll be a tough race. But he said any competition is tough and that he's putting in the hard work on the ground to win voters over.

"We'll see who comes out on top at the finish line," he said.

Another seat Republicans hope to pick up in the Senate is District 28 after Sen. Siah Correa Hemphill, D-Silver City, dropped her reelection bid following the June primary.

The race pits former state Sen. Gabriel Ramos, a Democrat-turned-Republican, against Grant County Commission Chairman Chris Ponce, who was selected to be on the ballot by the Democratic Party of New Mexico's State Central Committee after Correa Hemphill withdrew from the race.

Ramos was among five conservative Democrats who were targeted and ousted in the 2020 primary election for voting against the repeal of a 1969 law that criminalized abortion in New Mexico.

After Correa Hemphill defeated Ramos in the June 2020 primary with nearly 62% of the vote, Ramos changed his party affiliation.

"My values have not changed," Ramos said last year after announcing he was running to reclaim it as a Republican. "What has changed is the divisive agenda of progressive politicians in Santa Fe."

Another seat both parties believe is up for grabs is District 21 after Sen. Mark Moores, the only Republican senator representing Albuquerque, decided not to seek reelection.

Republican Nicole Tobiassen, who is running against Democrat Athena Christodoulou, believes she can keep the seat in GOP hands.

"The race is going really well from our lens, and I'm working super hard, and I feel like I'm all in it, so I'm obligated to keep this seat," she said. "I think I'd be letting down an awful lot of New Mexicans if I didn't."

Tobiassen, a former car rental company executive who now works as a business coach, said the Legislature needs a lawmaker with her experience and background.

"For the last 16 years, I've been coaching businesses all around the state, and I've watched, I think, from a really unique lens, what's happening in New Mexico," she said. "Our legislators, honestly, they're not hitting the mark. People are frustrated, and business owners here in New Mexico are predominantly small business, they're family-run, they're multigenerational, they are deeply entrenched within the community, and they care an awful lot about their employees. They're struggling and frustrated, so I figured, well, I can be frustrated and disgruntled or I can be part of the solution."

Christodoulou, who unsuccessfully ran for the seat in 2020 and for House District 31 two years later, said the political climate with former President Donald Trump on the ballot improves her chances. She said her experience as a retired U.S. Navy commander and engineer also makes her uniquely qualified.

"I'm a longtime resident there, so people know me and with the current political scene in the federal arena, that Democrats are very proud to get out and make sure we keep our democracy," she said.

Other competitive races in the Senate include District 9, where Democrat Cindy Nava is running against Republican and former secretary of state candidate Audrey Trujillo, and District 29, where Democrat Tina Garcia is facing Republican Sen. Joshua Sanchez, who is running as an incumbent but in a district previously held by Senate Minority Leader Greg Baca of Belen.

Baca, who took office in 2017 after defeating then-Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez, D-Belen, announced he wouldn't be running for another term after the 30-day session earlier this year.

In a joint statement, Senate President Pro Tem Mimi Stewart of Albuquerque and Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth of Santa Fe said Democrats have a "powerful, diverse group of candidates fighting to hold or reclaim" seats across the state.

"New Mexicans have said over and over again that MAGA extremism does not reflect our values," they said.

"At the NM Senate Democratic Caucus, we're committed to protecting democracy, to growing an economy that works for everyone, and to addressing the causes of crime while also holding criminals accountable," they said. "We won't let Republicans take away women's reproductive rights, we won't let them sell out the middle class to corporations and billionaires, and we won't let them destroy our environment or our democracy."

No stone unturned

In the House, the most competitive races include District 38 between Dow and Jaramillo, as well as the District 36 race between incumbent Rep. Nathan Small, D-Las Cruces, chair of the powerful House Appropriations and Finance Committee, and Republican Kimberly Skaggs, a Republican Party official. Skaggs narrowly lost against Small by 408 votes in 2022.

"We absolutely have to take into consideration how we are affecting people's lives before we make decisions, and I don't feel like that's going on in Santa Fe," she said.

House Speaker Javier Martínez, D-Albuquerque, predicts the race between Small and Skaggs will be close.

"But I got to tell you, Chairman Small is an incredible leader," Martínez said. "He is somebody who has really represented that district very well for the last several cycles and in his role as chairman of House Appropriations has really had the opportunity to deliver for communities across the state and his community down in District 36."

Martínez said races where Democrats "have a very good opportunity" to win currently Republican-held seats include Districts 31 and 57, both Albuquerque-area seats with retiring Republican incumbents and, on paper, narrow Democratic voter majorities.

Martínez said Democrats also have hopes of turning House District 39, which includes Catron, Grant and Hidalgo counties, blue. The seat is currently held by Rep. Luis Terrazas, a businessman, who is facing Democrat Gabrielle Begay, a teacher.

"She's an educator, incredible leader in her community, with a lot of support from local communities," he said.

But the "top competitive race" Martínez is "monitoring very closely" is between Dow and Jaramillo.

"That will be a tremendously close race, but Tara is not leaving any stone unturned, and neither are we," Martínez said. "We are working our hearts out to ensure that she comes back to the Roundhouse."

In the most recent fundraising period, more than two dozen Democratic lawmakers flooded Jaramillo with $63,000 in campaign contributions — part of a concerted effort to keep the district blue.

Dow, however, has maintained a fundraising edge.

In a statement, House Minority Leader Rod Montoya of Farmington predicted Republicans will make inroads in November.

"Last cycle, House Republicans lost 10 races by less than 5,000 votes — total!" he said. "Since then, New Mexicans have seen dramatic increases to the cost of living, groceries, utility rates, fuel costs; not to mention violent crime, addiction, and homelessness. Momentum is growing because voters are ready to hold elected Democrats accountable for their horrific record."

Leticia Muñoz, executive director of the Republican Party of New Mexico, echoed the sentiment.

"New Mexicans are fed up with hearing the Democratic Party's promises during election season, only to see them take opposite actions once elected that leave our state worse off year after year," she said. "All of the Republican candidates are working hard to engage with voters in their districts on the issues that really matter, and we're very close to picking up more seats this year."

Follow Daniel J. Chacón on Twitter