Rosenthal: Why Jays may not make sense for Juan Soto, the case for Alex Bregman and more MLB notes
I'm all for any team making an all-out push for Juan Soto. Every team with resources should make an all-out push for Juan Soto. But don't the Toronto Blue Jays sort of have it backward?
Wouldn't the Jays stand a better chance of landing Soto if they had their homegrown superstar, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. , signed long-term?
Soto, 26, almost certainly will go for the best offer. If the Jays outbid New York Mets owner Steve Cohen, more power to them. But Soto surely does not want to get stuck in a bad situation. And the Jays are not nearly as well-positioned to remain competitive as his other known suitors.
Guerrero, 25, and shortstop Bo Bichette , 26, could hit the open market after next season. Baseball America last August ranked the Jays' farm system 23rd and The Athletic's Keith Law had Toronto's system as the 20th-best .
In the American League East, the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles were playoff teams last season. The Tampa Bay Rays are always competitive. And the Boston Red Sox are on the rise.
The uncertain futures of Jays president Mark Shapiro (signed through 2025) and general manager Ross Atkins (through '26) only add to the questions surrounding the club and might be fueling its desire to make a splash. The Jays tried for Shohei Ohtani in free agency last offseason and Soto in a trade. And Shapiro and Atkins have made it clear they intend to keep pushing forward.
Soto's appeal to the Jays, then, is obvious. A Soto-Guerrero left-right combination might not be quite as potent as Soto-Aaron Judge, but it wouldn't be far off. Judge led the majors in OPS+ last season. Soto was third, Guerrero sixth. And here's the most intriguing part: Guerrero is 4 1/2 months younger than Soto — and seven years younger than Judge.
People around the Jays praise Guerrero for his growth, citing his work ethic, his maturity, his leadership. Though his track record when it comes to performance is a bit inconsistent — 2022 and '23 were down years, by his standards — he is precisely the kind of player teams build around. The kind of player who would be in heavy demand as a free agent next offseason, even if first basemen generally do not fare as well in the open market as players at more valuable defensive positions.
Perhaps Guerrero is telling the Jays, "Find some players to put around me, and then I'll consider staying." Perhaps Soto, Anthony Santander and other Jays free-agent targets are saying, "Sign Vlad Jr., and then we'll talk." In which case, the Jays are stuck between a rock and a hard place — an impossible position, but one of their own making.
If you're Soto, you know this much: Guerrero had a .940 OPS last season and the Jays won 74 games. The Mets, Yankees and Red Sox offer a higher floor. Other teams do, too. You're going to get your money. And you can get it from a team in better shape than the Jays.
The case for Bregman
The Athletic's Tim Britton projects a seven-year, $189 million contract for free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman. I suspect that Bregman and his agent, Scott Boras, are aiming higher — specifically, at a deal closer to the 11-year, $350 million extension Manny Machado signed with the San Diego Padres in February 2023.
Preposterous? Maybe, considering that another of Boras' third base clients, Matt Chapman , recently signed a six-year, $151 million deal. The Machado extension, which prevented him from opting out at the end of '23, resulted in part from the passion and generosity of the late Padres owner, Peter Seidler. Other teams, including Bregman's previous club, the Houston Astros , likely view it as an outlier. But the statistical comparison between Machado and Bregman is closer than one might think.
Bregman, at 30 years, eight months, is roughly the same age Machado was when he signed his extension. Machado began his major-league career at 19, three years earlier than Bregman, who played collegiately at LSU. So at the time Machado signed his deal, he had nearly 1,500 more plate appearances than Bregman does now.
Still, Bregman's career OPS+ is 32 percent above league average, 6 percent higher than Machado's was entering 2023. Machado rated an edge in Wins Above Replacement per season, but not by a terribly significant margin. And while Machado generally is considered the better defender, Bregman is no slouch, having just won his first Gold Glove.
Bregman is indeed five years removed from his best season — 2019, when he was the runner-up for AL MVP. Yet it's also true he has played in 99 postseason games, second only to Astros teammate Jose Altuve . Eighteen of those games were in 2017, when commissioner Rob Manfred determined the Astros stole signs illegally. The scandal, however, did not prevent two members of those teams, George Springer and Carlos Correa , from receiving market-value deals in free agency.
Boras, naturally, is using Bregman's playoff experience as a selling point. Bregman's career OPS in the postseason is .789.
"Bregman's value is beyond the customary season metrics of an excellent infielder," Boras said. "Owners covet championships. They openly admit in meetings the uniqueness of Bregman's leadership and postseason performance are not included in his WAR evaluation."
Shortstops not always a sure thing
After several years of crowded shortstop markets, Willy Adames almost stands alone in free agency. The next best player at the position, Ha-Seong Kim, is coming off labrum surgery on his right shoulder and is not expected to be ready at the start of the 2025 season. Adames' willingness to move to another infield spot only enhances his potential value, and Britton projects him receiving a six-year, $150 million deal.
Monster contracts for position players generally are less risky than those for pitchers, and Adames is still in his prime at 29. But since February 2021, 11 shortstops have signed deals of $140 million or more. The results in the early stages of the deals, when the bang for the buck is supposed to be highest, have been decidedly mixed.
Javier Báez (six years, $140 million) has been a bust. Trevor Story (six years, $140 million) has missed nearly two-thirds of his team's games due to injuries; Carlos Correa (six years, $200 million) nearly one-third. Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177 million) has been elite defensively, but only average offensively.
Circumstances for others vary. Francisco Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340 million) moved off shortstop, only to become an elite right fielder and demonstrate in the postseason that he again could become the offensive force he was earlier in his career. Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million) also moved off short — after just one season, no less — but returned to the position last September when Kim was still injured. The San Diego Padres are not yet sure who will play short in 2025.
Among the big-money shortstops, Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million) and Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million) have produced the best returns thus far. Using Fangraphs' dollars metric, which is WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency, Lindor has given the Mets $157.1 million of value in his first three seasons, while Seager has provided the Texas Rangers $121.8 million of value in his first three.
Those estimates perhaps should be even higher; the calculations do not include postseason performance, and Seager and Lindor both have excelled in October for their new teams. Fangraphs also values each point of WAR at slightly more than $8 million; some front offices believe the number should be closer to $9 million or even $10 million.
Where does all this leave Adames? Durability is one of his strong points: He appeared in more than 90 percent of his team's games from 2019 to '24. He also brings energy and leadership, and is coming off a career-high 32 homers, 112 RBIs and 21 stolen bases. His defensive metrics declined from 2023, so perhaps a position change will occur sooner rather than later. But given the scarcity in the market, he is primed to meet Britton's projection, and possibly exceed it.
Can Orioles land an ace?
Starting with the Corbin Burnes trade last Feb. 1, the Baltimore Orioles have traded 10 prospects for major leaguers — 11 if you count the pick they sent the Milwaukee Brewers in the Burnes deal, who turned out to be University of Tennessee first baseman Blake Burke at No. 34.
So, while the Orioles are one of many teams in the mix for Chicago White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet , they currently are more focused on free agency, according to sources briefed on their discussions. New ownership has given general manager Mike Elias the flexibility to at least explore the markets for the top free agents, from Burnes on down.
The Orioles ideally would add two starting pitchers — either Burnes or someone like him at the top of their rotation, plus another pitcher who perhaps would be more of an upside play. Depth is not the issue. Zach Eflin , Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer currently stand as the top three, with Cade Povich , Albert Suárez and Trevor Rodgers also in the mix.
What the Orioles need is a Burnes, a Blake Snell, a Max Fried. All of those pitchers are attracting significant interest from big-market clubs. Whether the Orioles' new ownership is willing to compete at that level remains to be seen.
(Top photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via )
