Stats gonna hurt: Denver Bronco stat discussion after the blowout loss to the Ravens

The Denver Broncos went for it five times on fourth down in the loss to the Baltimore Ravens and converted only once. During the 1994-2024 timeframe the Broncos only had two games where they went for it more on 4th down. The first was December 5th 2021. The Broncos went for it six times on 4th down in that loss to the Kansas City Chiefs .

A few seasons earlier, on December 9th 2018, the Broncos went for it seven times on 4th down in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers . In that game the Broncos were down 20 to nothing at the half and came back to make it a 20-14 loss. The Broncos were 5 of 7 on 4th downs that game, all of which happened in the second half. In the loss to the Chiefs in 2021, the Broncos were 3-6 on 4th down.

The Broncos had 286 games where they went for it on 4th down at least once.

Sunday's game was only the second time the Broncos went for it five times on 4th down. The previous time was November 9th, 1997 in a 34-0 shutout win over the Panthers. The Broncos were successful on three of five that game.

Sunday's game against the Ravens was the least successful game when the Broncos had five or more attempts on 4th down as the Broncos failed on four of five. The only 4th down conversion was an the lone TD of the day.

The Broncos have run 509 plays on 4th down from 1994-2024 and have converted on 48.9% percent of them (249 conversions with 43 of them being TDs). Recently coaches are decided to go for it more on 4th and two or less much more than they used to. Much of this comes from the analytics telling them that they should.

In 2024 the Bronco offense had been quite good on 4th down, before Sunday, converting on eight of eleven attempts (73%). The Browns are the team with the most 4th down attempts this season so far (21) while the Chargers have the fewest with only four. The teams that have been the most successful on 4th down so far this year are the Bills and the Commanders. Both have converted all of their 4th down attempts - 11 and 9 respectively. The Dolphins have the worst success rate at 19% having only converted on 3 of 16.

For most of the season the Bronco punt coverage unit had been aces, but that also was not working well against the Ravens. Riley Dixon only punted twice, but the one that was returned came back 21 yards. The one that was fair caught Dixon's punts was at the 21,so not inside the 20. So far this season 20 of his 43 punts have been downed inside the 20. That's 46.5% but that is not even close the top of the league. Tommy Townsend is leading the league at 53.7%. Dixon is leading the league in % downed inside the five though. His four punts downed at the one is the most ever in Bronco history (data only goes back to 2001). The fewest ever in an NFL season was 10 in 2020. I didn't look to see if there were any downed at the one in week 9, but at the end of week 8 there had been 9 already this season. The most ever in a season was 30 in 2013.

Four is the most that any team has had in a single season (see below).

I had planned to look at punts downed at the 2, 3, 4, and 5 yard lines, but my motivation to work on football stats evaporated during the Bronco game. Hopefully it will return soon and I can finish this study.

Through week eight in 2024 nine teams did not have a single punt downed inside the five. The Browns had the most with five. The Rams and the Chargers like the Broncos also had four, but all four of the Broncos were downed at the one, which is either amazingly good or amazingly lucky. No other team this season has more than one punt downed at the one.

In the next best season for the Broncos, 2007, they had six punts downed inside the five and three of those at the one. The other three were downed at the 2, 3, and 4 yard lines. Each of those six drives resulted in the Broncos getting the ball back - four punts, one interception and one safety.

The four punts we have had downed at the one this year have resulted in three punts and a safety.