Why Miliband’s net zero revolution could drive the countryside to Reform
Ed Miliband's plan to decarbonise Britain's electricity supply will change the topography of Britain's countryside and the views from our shores – and may yet redraw the political map too.
A report published on Tuesday by the UK's National Energy System Operator (Neso) tells the Energy Secretary that his dream of decarbonising the power grid by 2030 means he must double onshore wind capacity, triple offshore wind and quadruple solar power in just five years.
To hit his target he must first rewrite the UK's planning system , raise billions of pounds in finance and oversee the creation of a massive supply chain capable of producing thousands of wind turbines and solar panels, plus the miles of cable needed to connect them all up.
Some of the proposals are relatively uncontroversial – there will be few objections to expanding offshore wind, or boosting the UK's battery storage network, for example.
But others, such as Neso's call for thousands of giant new electricity pylons marching across the rural landscape, will be incendiary in the areas targeted for such developments.
Objectors say those planned pylons will not just be unsightly but will also open the way to industrial-scale wind and solar farms that will transform local landscapes.
In Westminster, however, the growing fear is about the transformation of the political landscape – with Reform and the Conservatives eyeing up the net zero agenda for winning future votes.
"The net zero agenda is about to become a big political issue," says Reform leader Nigel Farage. "The public are waking up to the fact that we have the most expensive electricity in the world – and Red Ed's plans will make the situation far worse.
"As for the Tories ... they can hardly backtrack. In next year's county council elections, we will campaign hard against this lunacy."
He is confident that such issues will play big in next May's county council elections.
The Conservatives may too be about to change tack. Kemi Badenoch – whose election as party leader was announced last weekend – has described herself as a "net zero sceptic" but "not a climate change sceptic". She also warned that net zero was "making energy more expensive and hurting our economy".
Just what will the country look like when the public next vote in a general election?
Neso has proposed two pathways to decarbonising the electricity grid – giving up on carbon-emitting fuels such as gas to drive power stations – by 2030, each requiring investment in the region of £40bn per year.
One envisages the UK becoming highly reliant on wind and solar farms, as well as greater flexibility in the system, and building no new power stations.
The other involves less offshore wind but a surge in "dispatchable" sources of power, from gas plants topped with carbon capture to biomass, hydrogen and even new nuclear power plants.
Neso's report makes clear that both pathways will be hugely challenging.
Wind and solar
One of the biggest changes may be in the view from our coastlines. Offshore wind farms must form "the bedrock" of Britain's future energy system, meeting more than half of our electricity needs, according to the Neso. "There is no path to clean power without mass deployment of offshore wind," its report adds.
The 2,800 wind turbines surrounding British coastlines are already delivering 15GW of power capacity and have the potential to deliver far more. The challenge is not the technology but the timescale.
Neso has suggested adding up to 35GW by 2030 – or about 3,500 more machines. But that means installing two of the giant turbines every day for five years. There are significant doubts around whether this pace is achievable.
It is a similar story for onshore wind and solar. Neso envisages a trebling of solar power , from 15GW of capacity now to 47GW by 2030. Since solar needs about 5,000 acres per gigawatt this means solar panels will have to cover about 250,000 acres of farmland – roughly the size of Dartmoor National Park.
This makes solar one of the most controversial of Miliband's low carbon technologies. Most of those new solar farms will be in the south east – close to the cities that want the power and also because sunshine levels are higher. And they will be clustered around the new pylon lines and substations planned especially along the east coast, where connections will be easiest.
The UK already has 9,100 onshore wind turbines with a capacity of 13GW – but most are tucked away in Scotland and Wales where they are controversial with some but low populations reduce protest.
Neso envisages at least doubling onshore wind – with most of those developments happening in England, which Miliband has just opened up to wind farm developments. He and Neso want 27 GW by 2030 with the new capacity delivered by much larger machines – up to 800 feet tall compared with the 2-300 feet of previous machines.
As with solar these developments will tend to cluster around the new pylon lines where connections are easiest – meaning a surge in protests from rural communities outraged at the industrialisation of their countryside.
By 2030, nuclear power stations will need to be providing between 3.5 and 4.1 gigawatts of electricity, according to Neso.
At present, all but one of Britain's existing plants – Sizewell B – are scheduled to close this decade. Neso assumes that operator EDF will be able to extend the lifespan of at least one or two of its existing fleet by a few years. The French giant is exploring the feasibility of this but there are no guarantees.
Neso has two other nuclear hopes. One is that one of two reactors at Hinkley Point C might start operating by 2030. However, EDF has already made clear that 2030 is the earliest theoretical date – and the project's history of delays make that highly unlikely.
The other is the early emergence of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) by 2030.
But that prospect is dismissed by nuclear industry insiders.
Great British Nuclear, the government body tasked with preparing nuclear sites, has previously said it does not expect any SMRs to come online until "the early 2030s".
Pylons, substations and infrastructure
Generating clean electricity is one thing but it must then be transported to the right place. Double the amount of pylons, cables and other transmission infrastructure must be built in the next five years as has been built in the previous ten in order to rewire Britain for net zero, Neso says.
Without this massive expansion, it will not be "fully possible to utilise renewables". This is because there is insufficient capacity on major north-south power lines to ensure that wind power generated in Scotland and the North can be transported to where it is most needed in the power-hungry cities of the South.
Wind farms currently have to be paid to "switch off" because there is nowhere for their power to go – a practice known as constraint payments.
Fixing the problem will involve £60bn of investment to build around 620 miles of new onshore power lines and another 2,800 miles of offshore ones, across 88 construction projects, the Neso says. Of these, at least 80 must be delivered for the Government to hit its 2030 clean power target.
Ripping up red tape
What all Miliband's plans depend upon, however, is the planning system. Cutting the time taken for planning consents and massively accelerating development is key to the entire agenda. What will it mean for local democracy?
"The only way to achieve change on this scale would be to suspend the planning rules, with developers given carte blanche to put up pylons or turbines wherever they choose," says Ashley Kelty, an energy analyst at investment bank Panmure Gordon.
For rival politicians, that could be a gift – enabling them to portray Labour as dictatorial and obsessed with net zero.
The unrest in the countryside is already palpable. National Grid's plans for thousands of new pylons have seen protest groups spring up across the country, with traditionalists like the Campaign for Protecting Rural England increasingly joined by much louder groups such Lincolnshire's No Pylons .
Richard Tice, Reform's energy spokesman, said the Clean Power 2030 plan would see his Boston and Skegness constituency and others along the east coast hit by thousands of pylons, sub-stations, onshore wind farms and solar farms.
"Labour is imposing a net zero dictatorship and charging it to consumers. They want to rip up planning rules and create a spider's web of pylons, cables and solar farms across our countryside blighting our constituencies.
"There will be a political backlash but the Conservatives were pushing the same net zero agenda before they lost power so they are to blame too. Reform will be making energy the top issue for the county council elections next May."
Wera Hobhouse, a Liberal Democrat who sits on the energy select committee, warned that losing the support of local people could derail the whole net zero project. Seeking to decarbonise the grid by 2030 risks inflaming such tensions by compressing timelines.
She says: "We are calling for decisions to be devolved to local authorities and we believe that without the buy-in of people across our communities, the ambitious targets, which the Government has set, cannot be achieved."
For now, Miliband and his party are firmly set on their mission for decarbonising our power by 2030.
But the stakes could not be higher. His energy and net zero policies could help determine the fate not just of his own career but of his party in future elections.
Responding to Neso's report, the Energy Secretary says: "The Government is determined to ensure the significant reforms to planning and grid we need so we can back the builders and support investors to make this once in a generation upgrade of Britain's energy infrastructure happen.
"The prize on offer for our country is huge: energy security, cheaper power and the creation of jobs and wealth for Britain.
"Every family and business deserves affordable, secure power – and that is what we will deliver."
