Steelers vs. Chargers: The ultimate betting breakdown for Week 3

An unbeaten AFC team will drop its first game of 2024 when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Los Angeles Chargers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh in Week 3 and Pennsylvania sports betting sites are all over it.

The Steelers will be playing their home opener after starting 2-0 with road wins in Atlanta and Denver. Quarterback Justin Fields has been efficient throwing and running the ball, and the Pittsburgh defense ranks second in points-against per game (8.0) and fifth in yards-against per game (260.5).

But the Chargers are also unbeaten in Jim Harbaugh's first season as coach, and the veteran coach has won 17 straight games between the University of Michigan and LA's first two wins. Although he is an offensive-minded coach, the Chargers lead the NFL in points-against per game (6.5) and are second in yards-against per game (227.5) through two weeks.

Can the Steelers score? Pittsburgh's star-laden defense has dominated through its first two games, led by another ridiculous start from T.J. Watt (two sacks, one fumble recovery) and safety and leading tackler Minkah Fitzpatrick (14 tackles, 11 solo). But this will be the Pittsburgh offense's first test of 2024, since the Chargers defense is playing as well as any in football.

Plus it isn't like the Steelers, who have just 31 points through two games, are lighting up the scoreboard. Sure, Fields has not yet turned the ball over through two weeks, but the Steelers have only scored one touchdown in eight quarters, a 10-yard strike from Fields to tight end Darnell Washington in the first quarter in Denver.

Chris Boswell is a great kicker, proven by the fact he is 9 for 9 on kicks, with an NFL-high eight field goals through two weeks. But the Steelers offense will need to score touchdowns at some point, and they ought to do so Sunday.

The Chargers offense is potent, since they are scoring 24 points per game through two weeks, led by the NFL's leading rusher J.K. Dobbins, who is averaging 133.0 yards per game. Plus, fifth-year quarterback Justin Herbert is developing a rapport with Nos. 1 and 2 receivers Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey.

So the Pittsburgh offense needs a breakout performance if it is going to improve to 3-0 for the first time since 2020.

Chargers vs Steelers odds The Steelers are a slight favorite of between -2.5-3 points with moneyline odds of about -150. The Chargers have moneyline odds of about +130 but are considered likely to cover +3 based on the -120 odds for them to cover the spread.

The total is one of the most interesting numbers of the online sports betting weekend, since these are two unbeaten squads yet the Over/Under has dropped to 34.5 from 36.5 over the week, which is inordinately low.

Both teams are unbeaten while cover -3 this season, and the idea of a Harbaugh-coached team getting points even though he has won that many games in a row, is a super-compelling prospect.

It isn't just that Harbaugh is riding a win streak but has the fifth-highest win percentage of any coach in NFL history (.705) and the best of any current active coach in pro football.

Road warriors? Not only is Los Angeles 2-0, but it has the best point differential in the AFC (plus-35), and second-best behind only the Saints. The Chargers accomplished this by going east and taking care of the Carolina Panthers on Sunday and using a silent count on offense during their first game at home against the Raiders.

Los Angeles' ability to win away from SoFi, or in marquee games where hoards of road fans invade the stadium, is a huge step since it was 3-5 on the road a season ago. But Sunday will be the Chargers' biggest maturity test of 2024, since the Pittsburgh faithful create as raucous and hostile an atmosphere as any NFL home fan base.

The Chargers' success in such games has been due to their ability to both effective run and commit to the run game, which they did not do under previous head coach Brandon Staley. Los Angeles finished in the bottom-12 in both rushing yards and rushing attempts in each of his three seasons.

Dobbins' ability to stay healthy for a full season seems like a huge storyline since he has played just 26 games over his four-plus NFL seasons, since Herbert is a rare successful quarterback who doesn't run the RPO.

If Los Angeles can run the ball with Dobbins, a tall ask since the Pittsburgh defense is tied for third in yards-against per game (76.5), then it can remain on schedule and not rely on Herbert to win the game. LA has a 71-46 run-pass ratio through two weeks, and if it struggles to run then it'll lose its renewed offensive balance and become predictable, where the likes of Watt, Fitzpatrick and cornerback Joey Porter Jr will strike.

Chargers vs Steelers betting Herbert's status was thrown into flux Friday when he showed up as questionable on the Chargers' injury report with an ankle injury. Though it was reported he may not play, it would take a significant regression to keep Herbert from suiting up since he has started 64 of a possible 69 games in his five NFL seasons.

But with Herbert likely to suit up at less than 100 percent, the Chargers offense may end up revolving around Dobbins even further. The Steelers defense may be lethal against the run, but LA has run wild against its opponents, and Dobbins' rushing prop (over/under 54.5 yards) is absurdly low for a player who has hit triple figures in each of his first two games.

Score effects could again require LA to air it out, but Dobbins' over for attempts (12.5, -120 at DraftKings sportsbook ) is a worthwhile play while playing in a hostile road environment and with Herbert hampered due to injury.

Chargers vs Steelers prediction If Herbert somehow doesn't play then the under will be worth considering with the potential for Fields vs Easton Stick. We'd also reconsider the potential for the Chargers to win outright, since Stick against Watt and Co. seems borderline unfair.

But assuming Herbert plays, the Chargers offense has been more balanced than the Steelers' through two games. Even though Watt will make some gamewrecking-type plays, and Pittsburgh's defense will keep it in the game, the Chargers defense should flummox Fields and their offense should make enough plays to win the game.