Ted Cruz Is Going to 'Lose for Sure,' Pollster Predicts
Amid this year's U.S. Senate race, pollster Ivan Moore predicted on Saturday that Senator Ted Cruz , a Texas Republican , is going to "lose for sure" against his Democratic opponent, Representative Colin Allred.
Cruz is facing Allred, a three-term congressman from Dallas, in a closely watched race that could determine which party wins control of the U.S. Senate .
Republicans are hoping to seize the Senate in this month's election after failing to do so in 2022 when a widely forecast "red wave" failed to materialize . There are currently 51 Democratic-aligned senators versus 49 Republican senators, though the GOP is widely expected to pick up the West Virginia seat currently occupied by independent Senator Joe Manchin who is not seeking reelection. Cruz's Senate seat, which he only held by less than 3 percent of the vote in 2018, is one of the most vulnerable to being flipped by the Democrats .
In a post on X, formerly Twitter , Moore, a pollster for the Alaska Survey Research, noted that while the presidential race in Texas is "going to be close," he predicted that Cruz "is gonna lose for sure."
"Is Kamala Harris going to win Texas? I think it's going to be close! Ted Cruz is gonna lose, for sure," he wrote.
In a separate post on X, Moore suggested that polls have Allred running ahead of Cruz and wrote, "The polls had Allred consistently running 4/5 pts better against Cruz than Harris against Trump. Texas always an outlier, but Cruz's days are numbered."
In an Emerson College poll of about 800 likely voters conducted between October 18 and 21 places the two candidates within 1.5 points of each other.
Other recent polls show Cruz leading by between one and seven points in Texas where voters have not elected a Democrat to a statewide office in 30 years.
According to the most recent poll conducted by Cygnal between October 26 and 28 with 600 likely voters, Cruz leads Allred by 4 points, with 49 percent to Allred's 45 percent.
A Texas Senate poll was conducted by ActiVote between October 1 and 16, with 400 likely voters in the state polled. The survey gave Cruz a 6-point lead, with 53 percent of the vote against 47 percent for Allred, ahead of the 4.9 percent margin of error.
A Morning Consult polled 2,048 likely Texan voters between October 6 and 15, giving Cruz a one-point lead, with 46 percent of the vote against 45 percent. Notably, a previous Morning Consult survey conducted between September 9 and 18 put Allred ahead by one point .
