Thanksgiving NFL Week 12: Best bets for Packers vs. Lions, Commanders vs. Cowboys, 49ers vs. Seahawks

Nothing says Thanksgiving like nine hours of NFL football.

With three intriguing matchups, we’ve got you covered with odds, predictions, picks and best bets for Packers vs. Lions, Commanders vs. Bears and 49ers vs. Seahawks in the nightcap.

Packers vs. Lions, 12:30 p.m. ET (FOX) Last week, the Packers finally caught a break, notably a high-leverage drop by the Chargers that essentially gave Green Bay the victory. The Packers have been one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL this season, and their record is not indicative of how they’ve played.

Jordan Love showcased arguably his two best performances of the season in consecutive weeks over middling AFC foes (Steelers and Chargers). In contrast, the Lions rank 21st in PFF coverage grade.

The Bears used methodical drives to nearly beat Detroit last week, and if not for a miracle comeback in the final two minutes, would have. Five drives of more than 5 minutes and 25 first downs by the Bears raise red flags.

Ranked 17th in net yards per drive, Green Bay now faces a below-average defensive unit by EPA per play allowed. While Detroit’s offense is superior in this matchup, is it really 7-plus points better?.

The Lions have a clear advantage on the offensive line, with the potential to exploit the Packers defense against the run. In the team’s Week 4 meeting, David Montgomery ran for 122 yards and three touchdowns. However, since then, Love has shown improvement, and the Packers’ OL is performing at an elite level.

Take the Packers and the points.

Pick: Packers +7.5

Commanders vs. Cowboys, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS) One of the most difficult NFL bets to make is taking a double-digit favorite, but that’s the play here with Dallas favored by by 12.5 points at home.

Part of the thinking here involves how the Cowboys are using Tony Pollard. Their RB1 had a season-high 32 touches in Week 2 and then 26 the next week. Since then, he’s gotten more than 17 touches just once.

While Mike McCarthy took over play-calling duties this season because he wanted to establish the run, he hasn’t done it with Pollard. Part of the reason is because of how well Dak Prescott has played. The quarterback is completing 70.1% of his passes, a career-high pace.

Lamb has been the key target for Prescott. He has exceeded 115 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and now he has an excellent matchup to make it five of six.

Washington’s defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the run but is last against the pass. The Commanders are last in DVOA against opposing top receivers, giving up an average of 9.2 receptions and 102.7 receiving yards per game to WR1s.

Pick: CeeDee Lamb over 89.5 receiving yards (-115)

Rookie Zach Charbonnet has proven himself as one of the NFL’s top backup running backs this season. With Kenneth Walker slated to miss Thursday night’s game, Charbonnet is set to make his first career start and will get plenty of action, especially on early downs.

Despite replacing Walker last week against the Rams and managing 47 yards on 15 attempts, Charbonnet’s efficiency might not be sustained in a full-time role. However, his initial struggles could be a blessing in disguise, serving to keep his rushing prop within manageable limits for the upcoming game.

The 49ers, while maintaining a league average of 4.1 yards per carry allowed to opposing backs, have benefited from a relatively easy schedule against rushing offenses. Heading into Week 12, they find themselves ranked 23rd in DVOA against the run.

Charbonnet is poised for a more efficient performance than last week.

Pick: Zach Charbonnet over 52.5 rushing yards (-115)