The economy drove New Jersey voters’ shift to the right, experts say
Election watchers attributed unexpected GOP gains to voters' concerns about the economy and immigration, as well as early-voting successes. (Photo by Jennifer Peacock | Assembly Republican Office)
It's a favorite phrase first coined by Bill Clinton's political adviser, James Carville, more than three decades ago: "It's the economy, stupid."
And after former President Donald Trump trounced Vice President Kamala Harris in Tuesday's presidential election, local party leaders and pundits alike agreed that the economy largely drove GOP gains and cost Democratic votes both in New Jersey and nationally.
"The Democrats have completely forgotten about the economy and how much it means to people and how much people are hurt by inflation right now," said Jeanette Hoffman, a Republican political strategist. "Yes, abortion is important, but to solely focus their entire campaigns on a woman's right to choose, at the exclusion of every other major issue, is just a losing formula."
Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and director of the FDU Poll, agreed affordability likely influenced most voters' choices, especially in a state where housing costs and taxes are among the highest in the nation.
"Elections are very much about 'throw the bums out' if you're unhappy. People are unhappy, so they threw the bums out," Cassino said.
lost in New Jersey Tuesday — but by a margin of only 5% while winning 12 of the state's 21 counties. He ran ahead of his 2020 margins virtually everywhere in the state, cutting into Democratic margins in stronghold counties like Bergen and Union and even flipping reliably blue Passaic County — which Biden won by more than 16 points four years ago — while building a larger lead in GOP strongholds like Ocean County.
That's the best a Republican presidential candidate has done in New Jersey since 2004, when then-Sen. John Kerry defeated President George W. Bush by a little less than seven points.
Beyond the economy, party leaders and pundits cited immigration, public safety fears, gender traditionalism that dented enthusiasm for Harris, concerns about U.S. foreign policy and Israel's war on Gaza, and controversial social issues like gender identity and abortion as reasons why New Jersey Democrats lost ground on Tuesday.
"Obviously, I'm disappointed. I think it was a red wave out there," said Passaic County Democratic Chairman John Currie. "I think it was more about the economy and immigration, and I'm a little shocked, but of course, I'm grateful that I held onto all of my countywide seats."
Republican State Chairman Bob Hugin said support from working-class voters ensured a strong GOP performance at the top of the ticket.
"You can't win a Republican primary if you don't speak to the people who have to work for a living and pay taxes at the lowest end of the economic spectrum," Hugin said. "The Democrats have abandoned them, and it's our opportunity to govern now."
Rep. Rob Menendez (D-08), who won reelection Tuesday by 25 points, conceded that Trump's messaging reached voters struggling with affordability.
"That impacts people's daily lives," he said. "There's a responsiveness to what Trump was selling."
And even though inflation has cooled and the economy has grown recently, the public hasn't seen the results of that yet, said Tina Zappile, director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University.
"Prices lag behind changes in inflation, and people just continue to feel the hurt at the grocery store, and that became, I think, the single most important issue next to immigration," Zappile said. "Worldwide, when people are afraid or unsure and there's a lot of fear, they do tend to vote more conservative, sometimes even authoritarian, rulers into power."
On immigration, she added, some voters have lost confidence in Democrats to secure the southern border and reduce illegal immigration. She cited Trump's repeated, false claim that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, abduct and eat pets.
"Even those that reject the Trump rhetoric about Springfield, they just don't believe that the Democrats can get it done," Zappile said.
Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, told reporters Wednesday that his 2021 reelection win — he won by 3 points, but polls prior to that election showed him with a much more substantial lead — may have been a signal that his party was in trouble.
"Our reelection might have been the canary in the coal mine. It's clearly economic, kitchen-table issues. It's immigration. No matter what the facts are, it's probably crime and public safety. And it's time to look in the mirror and make sure, either changing substance, if it needs to be changed, or changing how we communicate what we stand for," he said.
Murphy noted that Trump may have performed well in New Jersey, but it didn't always help Republicans down the ballot. Even as Trump won Passaic County, Democratic sheriff and county commissioner candidates there swept.
Janice M. Fields is a national GOP committeewoman and deputy mayor in Bernards Township.
She suspects the GOP's gains also arose from a backlash to how Democratic policymakers and advocates have handled polarizing issues like gender identity and abortion.
"To a lot of people in this country, it's still taboo to have an abortion, even if it's accepted and they believe in it. To normalize it, I don't even understand that. OK, have your abortion, we understand you want the right. But how you brag about it is just too much in the Catholic space, the Christian space," Fields said.
The celebrities who endorsed the Harris-Walz campaign and performed at their rallies also turned off some voters, she added.
"Hollywood people have no clue what the average person goes through," Fields said. "Who wants to hear these people tell us what to do, tell us how to think? They don't struggle."
A bump from advance voting
New Jersey Republicans also went into Election Day with a new advantage. Though the party historically has trailed Democrats before the general election — and continued to do so this year — broad uptake of in-person early voting meant that the Democratic advantage had shrunk by the time polls opened Tuesday.
Nearly 1.2 million residents cast early in-person ballots during the state's nine-day early voting period. Of those votes, 400,792 came from Republicans and 418,544 were cast by Democrats, though the latter party's voters still cast nearly 300,000 more mail ballots ahead of Tuesday.
Democrats did not see the Election Day turnout they anticipated, Cassino said.
"That points to a weakness, perhaps, in the get-out-the-vote apparatus, especially in the cities here in New Jersey, where it's been this long-term weakness," he said.
But Republican campaigners were ready, Hugin said. The early votes also meant Republican campaigners had to chase a smaller subset of voters, mirroring an advantage Democrats have had for years through mail voting.
"My entire family voted early, and nobody's calling us and wasting their time on us when we know we're going to vote one way or the other, whether it's on the day of the election, so maybe it's a good thing," Hugin said.
