Trump Won With the Most Diverse GOP Coalition Since the Civil Rights Act
We often hear predictions about a "political realignment," but they rarely come to fruition. Realignments are often once in a generation events, and they're not easily created. Realignments are seismic, like Franklin Delano Roosevelt creating the New Deal coalition, or the departure of Black Americans from the Republican Party during the Civil Rights era. They don't come around everyday, and it's hard to recognize a realignment until after it's over. But last night's election may be viewed in the history books as one of those rare events.
Former President and now President-elect Donald Trump had a historic comeback, beating Vice President Kamala Harris badly in the 2024 election. But the story of the election is not just his victory. It's how he won. After all the votes are counted, Trump will likely have won the largest share of the nonwhite vote of any Republican presidential candidate since at least Gerald Ford in 1976, if not Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1960. He won between 25 and 30 percent of the Black male vote nationwide, doubling his share from 2020 in some states. He won 45 percent of the Hispanic vote and an outright majority of Hispanic men. He won the largest share of the Jewish vote since the 1980s, while also simultaneously increasing his share of the Arab American vote. And Trump performed better in major cities across this nation.
You would have to go back to before the Civil Rights Act to see a more diverse Republican coalition.
This new paradigm shift has serious political repercussions moving forward. The math for the Republican Party has changed, likely permanently. College educated white voters used to be the party's base. but as they continue their slow drift to the Left, Republicans will have to maintain their new coalition.
The old Republican Party died last night. Moving forward, they will never again be able to ignore minorities, union workers, and working class voters if they want to continue to win elections.
This also creates a paradigm shift in the impacted communities. As a result of Vice President Harris's attempt to become the first woman of color to win the presidency, there was an unprecedented amount of support from all levels of the Black elite and intelligentsia. The fact that she was soundly defeated with the help of more Black defections than expected should cause the powers that be to recalibrate. How will they incorporate those defectors into their spheres of influence? Their credibility is on the line if they don't. Trump performed extraordinarily well among Black men under 40. If Black institutions refuse to reach out to those voters, the long term impacts could be devastating to their sustainability.
Competition for Black votes, however, is a good thing. Without it, one side can ignore you while the other side takes you for granted. As political strategist Jerry Primm told me, "This should be a wake up call to the entire political system that the Black community can no longer be ignored. Pats on the head and prayer breakfasts are no longer enough. You now have to compete for our votes just like you do for everybody else."
In 2021, now-Vice President elect JD Vance told me that his desire was to unite Black, white, and Hispanic working class voters into the Republican coalition. Last night's historic victory gives them the opportunity to do just that.
Republican leaders have said that they want to turn the GOP into a multicultural, multiracial working class party. Well, the voters just gave them a mandate. Now we will all wait to see what they do with it.
Darvio Morrow is CEO of the FCB Radio Network and co-host of The Outlaws Radio Show.
The views expressed by this are the writer's own.
