Up to 10-day wait to finalize tight JC commission race

JOHNSON CITY, Tenn. (WJHL) — It would take a remarkable shift from a pretty small number of potential votes, but the third seat in the Johnson City Commission election remains mathematically unsettled due to provisional ballots.

Wise in, Murphy out in razor-close JC Commission race

Currently, incumbent Joe Wise leads fellow incumbent Aaron Murphy by 46 votes, 7,742 to 7,696 for the third and final available seat. Todd Fowler and Greg Cox are well ahead in the first and second spots.

The outcome of those provisional ballots now rests in the hands of several state agencies that will determine the legitimacy of 386 of a total 529 provisional ballots cast in Washington County, Election Administrator Dana Jones told News Channel 11 late Thursday. The other 143 have been vetted locally, though Jones wasn't sure exactly how many had been deemed valid and would be added to the total.

"Now it's a waiting game," Jones said. "They'll go through seven state agencies, they'll sign off on them."

She said that process, which historically has involved much lower numbers of provisional ballots, typically takes seven to 10 days.

"We are trying to get Joe and Aaron the final results as quick as we can," Jones said. "My first calls after I let my commission know will be to the two candidates because they have a right to know."

Murphy's odds of the result flipping appear very slim for several reasons.

First, Johnson City voters comprise about 40% of total registered voters in the county. If provisional ballots follow that trend, that would lower the number that voted in the city election to around 212.

Second, City Commission voters had nine candidates from which to choose, and combined, Wise and Murphy were only voted for on just a quarter of the ballots. If that held, the total city votes with one or the other's name on them would total around 54.

Even if those were the only factors, Murphy would need to nearly sweep those voters to overcome Wise's current lead — but they aren't the only factors.

Historically, Jones said, the percentage of provisional ballots that actually get validated and add to the vote total doesn't top 20%. She said because there were so many more provisionals than normal this year, that approval percentage could be higher.

Despite all those factors, though, Murphy is by no means mathematically eliminated based on the current information.