Updated NFC playoff standings: We’re starting to see who the pretenders are

In a pivotal NFC contest, the San Francisco 49ers handled business this past Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers . The Niners are now a game over .500 and 3-3 in the NFC. The Bucs' loss dropped them to 12th in the conference and gave them an all-important conference loss.

If the playoffs started today, the Arizona Cardinals would be the only NFC West team to make the playoffs.

We will ignore the Dallas Cowboys , New Orleans Saints , Carolina Panthers , and New York Giants . Let's put the rest of the remaining teams in a tier.

These tiers are not based on record. It's a combination of subjectivity from the team's perceived delta, coaching, matchups, roster, playmakers, etc.

Tier I Detroit Lions The Lions were in an impossible scheduling spot in Week 10. Off an emotional divisional road win in rainy conditions, Detroit traveled to Houston to face a playoff team without its Defensive Player of the Year candidate and left tackle. Oh, and their quarterback threw five interceptions.

To me, interceptions are as overvalued as missed tackles. Of course, five is egregious, and if your opponent doesn't make you pay for those, it's easier to mount a comeback.

We're running out of options for ways the Lions can lose. They have speed on offense, can run the ball, stop the run, and convert touchdowns in the red zone while limiting you to field goals when you're in their scoring territory.

Detroit is the cream of the crop in the NFC.

Tier II Brock Purdy and Jordan Love are a cut above Sam Darnold, who is getting progressively worse as the season progresses.

The Vikings Week 10 score was as close as the 49ers game. Darnold threw three interceptions inside of the Jaguars 35-yard line. Minnesota outgained Jacksonville 402 to 143. They went 0-for-5 in the red zone.

As long as the Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL, with a group of pass catchers and a healthy Aaron Jones, they're one of the top teams in the conference. But Darnold limits their ceiling, which is why I have them No. 4.

The two teams that can beat Detroit play in Wisconsin in Week 12. Anybody who watched Week 9 could tell that Love wasn't 100 percent. He also missed a couple of games early in the season. Jaire Alexander has also been in and out of the lineup, along with other key injuries. Green Bay defeated the Texans just like Detroit did. They beat the Rams on the road. They embarrassed Arizona in their stadium by 21.

In the second half of the season, we'll see the best version of the Packers and a team that looks like a surefire contender.

The only two teams in the NFL that are in the top five of schedule-adjusted efficiency both offensively and defensively are the 49ers and the Lions. The difference is that one team is No. 1 in special teams, and the other is 31st.

The 49ers made Tampa Bay look helpless on both sides of the ball. If Week 10 foreshadows for the rest of the season, we're watching a team that'll likely be favored to beat the Lions. The defense played violently and angrily, and the YAC bros were out in full force against the Bucs.

When you weigh the most recent performances, the Niners are fourth overall in the NFL behind Detroit, Baltimore, and Kansas City. And that only includes one game of what we just saw.

The 49ers' performance in the past two games was of Super Bowl caliber. Tampa Bay scored on one "real" drive, while Dallas caught the 49ers sleeping at the wheel in the fourth quarter. Outside of that, the defense has dominated every other possession.

The offense has the highest success rate, and Lamar Jackson is the only team generating more EPA per play than the Niners in the past few weeks.

Predictive stats have the 49ers near the top of the league. We're talking about a team that should have seven wins had it not been for those tricky special teams.

Tier III Arizona Cardinals Philadelphia Eagles Washington Commanders The Cardinals aren't going anywhere because of their offensive line. They've gotten consistent push, are running all over defenses, and are no longer one-dimensional. They've been right around average defensively, and that's after playing the second-most difficult schedule to date.

The duo of Kyler Murray and James Conner will keep Arizona in any game, but the Cardinals' lack of Jimmys and Joes on defense kept them from being a Tier II team. I'm not sure they can hold up for much longer.

What do we make of the Eagles? They've played three teams with a pulse this season and lost to two of them. It's a team that hasn't been pushed in the past month and a half.

I don't think they're anywhere near as good offensively as some of the points on the scoreboard might suggest. Philly has improved defensively, but they've also played Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, and Cooper Rush/Trey Lance in five of the past six games.

I'll believe the Eagles are legit if they win a playoff game. I don't think they will.

The closest thing to a playoff game for Philly is this Thursday on the road against the Washington Commanders. I'll take Dan Quinn over Nick Sirianni before you finish your sentence. These are the types of explosive offenses the Eagles will face in the playoffs, so I think they'll be one-and-done in the postseason.

Jaylen Daniels has the Commanders 7-2. He's been one of the most valuable players in the NFL. Yes, he's a rookie, but he's dominated the same way he did in college. Washington's issue is that they can't stop a nosebleed, and if you plan to score 30+ in the playoffs out of necessity, good luck with that. Marshon Lattimore should make a difference, but everybody moves the ball on the Commanders.

Tier IV Rams Seahawks Buccaneers Falcons The Rams have a Tier I quarterback and head coach; I'd argue the same for their defensive line. A healthy Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will always make the Rams a threat, but they have a Tier V offensive line and secondary. They can't block and have shown no signs of being able to stop anybody through the air.

Seattle's offensive line is a trainwreck and is in the bottom 10 in most defensive metrics. Seattle can score thanks to their quarterback, but they don't have an offensive identity, and unless they score four times, the Seahawks are losing. That's not how you win in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay could still make the playoffs despite a four-game losing streak. Their best chance is hoping the Falcons slip up in the coming weeks. As long as they can stop the run and have Baker Mayfield competing the way he has this season, I won't count the Bucs out until they're officially eliminated.

I'd take both NFC West teams in this tier over the NFC South clubs. All six of Atlanta's wins are in the conference, but they only have a +2 point differential after playing Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Seattle, the Eagles, Dallas, and the Saints twice. The only double-digit victory of that group happened in a game where Dalton threw two interceptions.

Atlanta is the ultimate pretender and the team you want to face in the first round of the playoffs.