Were the Edmonton Oilers’ summer moves supported by analytics?

As a group, Edmonton Oilers fans are wildly passionate and well informed.

No one doubts the devotion or the courage of each fan's conviction, but there's a split when it comes to how decisions are reached.

How should the math group feel about this summer's activities? Here's a look.

Players re-signed for next season, plus PTOs

This is an important and often underrated part of team building. The Oilers went to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, so bringing back most of the roster makes sense on all levels. Here's the group, with a note on 2024-25 roles.

CEO Jeff Jackson and the Oilers staff did most of the work this summer, without a de facto general manager.

These are good players signed to good-to-great contracts. Some of these veterans ( Adam Henrique , Connor Brown , others) clearly have a Stanley Cup victory in mind, and no doubt left money on the table from other clubs.

There are also deals ( Mattias Janmark , Calvin Pickard ) for reasonable dollars spent on players who delivered in specific and vital roles.

This is an important part of building a championship team. Edmonton has the aces and kings on the roster in Connor McDavid and the newly extended Leon Draisaitl . Quality support is needed.

In terms of analytics, Draisaitl's contract is value now and should be for many years to come. His exceptional offence and utility (he can do everything well) made him a vital signing. His Puck IQ player card shows a 58 percent Dangerous Fenwick percentage (smart Corsi, like expected goals) versus elites at five-on-five, 59 percent overall.

The Henrique player card from his time with Edmonton shows him to be a strong solution against mid-level (51 percent) and the soft parade (50 percent) but a little below par (49.5 percent) versus elites. It's a small sample (just 78 minutes against elites) but in minutes without McDavid and against elites, Henrique did well (3-1 goals, 51 percent DFF percentage).

The Henrique deal is for only two seasons, reducing the chances of another Eric Belanger "retirement contract" (that was a three-year deal) signed by Edmonton a decade ago.

The Janmark and Connor Brown contracts are deals the analytics faithful endorse based on dollars, term and likely value.

Both men were spectacular on the penalty kill, via Natural Stat Trick , during the playoffs last spring, and both played big minutes in the discipline during the regular season. Both men ran at 50 percent five-on-five last year, Janmark for the entire season and Brown once he got completely healthy as winter turned to spring.

If Brown scores goals this season at the same rate after getting healthy (four goals in 11 games beginning mid-March) this could bring high value.

The Corey Perry contract feels a little heavy based on what we saw from the veteran last year, but the overall feel of the returning group is positive.

The PTOs are interesting but all are long shots. Travis Dermott has the best chance to make the team but is a distant bell.

New additions over the summer

The Oilers shocked the fan base with some surprising free-agent signings in the early hours of the summer shopping spree.

Led by the Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson signings, the organization left the July long weekend with what seemed to be an embarrassment of riches.

Skinner on a one-year deal for $3 million looks like robbery. At five-on-five over the last three seasons, his points per 60 totals were 2.59, 3.13 and 2.02. That 2023-24 number ranked No. 80 among all NHL forwards last season. That's top-line production, and he's going to play with Draisaitl or McDavid this season. The main concern for Oilers fans is the possible cost of an extension. Skinner scored 2.51 goals per 60 on the power play with the Buffalo Sabres in 2023-24 and should get PP time with Edmonton this season.

Arvidsson played just 18 regular-season games (and five in the playoffs) for the Los Angeles Kings last season. Injuries are always a worry for players past 30 and Arvidsson is a smaller winger who plays an aggressive style. There's danger there.

When healthy, Arvidsson is a real concern for opponents. Over the past three seasons combined five-on-five, his points per 60 (1.92) ranked No. 4 among Kings forwards, and his goal share (53 percent) and expected goal percentage (55) were impressive. His power-play points per 60 (5.76) during those three combined seasons was noteworthy, too.

Ty Emberson showed well with the San Jose Sharks in a small sample. At five-on-five, he led the struggling Sharks in goal share (44 percent), landed fourth in expected goal percentage (43 percent) and played 32 percent of his minutes, via Puck IQ playing against elite competition. There are solid arrows in a small sample, suggesting some risk but clear potential.

Josh Brown does not score well via analytics. Puck IQ rates his performance at a 10 percent deficit relative to his fellow Arizona Coyotes teammates one year ago. That's a cruel report card. The Oilers may be counting on Brown's numbers improving on a better team. If the Oilers can float his boat (this was the case last season when Vincent Desharnais was 4 percent below level relative to teammates), then Brown's rugged play can survive and the team can outscore when he's off the ice.

Analytics history suggests this is not a winning bet.

Vasily Podkolzin 's five-on-five scoring rates over his three NHL seasons are going the wrong way. As a rookie, he scored 1.47 points per 60, a passable total for a bottom-six winger. Since then, he totalled 0.96 (2022-23) and 0.62 (2023-24) moved down the depth chart and spent increasing time with the AHL Abbotsford Canucks over the three seasons.

His NHL scoring peak came in 2021-22, with veteran forward Conor Garland , as Podkolzin produced 2.11 points per 60 in 284 five-on-five minutes.

Last season, he contributed as a productive five-on-five outscorer in limited minutes, via Puck IQ . He is big and fast, was regarded as part of the future on the left coast not so long ago, and is getting a terrific second chance in Edmonton.

The numbers from the last two seasons aren't encouraging.

Exiting the system, goodbye

Jackson and his team were efficient early and got sideswiped late.

The buyout of Jack Campbell was obvious, as described well by Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic recently. Warren Foegele 's exit was necessary because of cap worries and the path charted by the July 1 free-agent signings. Desharnais' exit was for similar reasons.

The trade of Ryan McLeod for Matt Savoie was a combination of cap-driven and the opportunity to add a truly talented young winger. The Oilers used to have players like Savoie in camp every fall, but those days are gone. It's likely the McLeod trade, described as a salary dump at the time, will age well as Savoie finds his way as an NHL scorer.

The twin offer sheets that sent Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to the St. Louis Blues reflect poorly on every management person who wandered the hallways at Rogers Place during the period these two men could be signed to extensions. The only question for fans is how costly is this misstep. Time will tell, and losing two first-round selections ticketed for regular duty is a punch to the gut in any league that matters.

Analytics suggests both Holloway and Broberg can find success in St. Louis, but there are questions about whether either man will emerge in a feature role.

Broberg is a fine young defender and should become a productive top-four defenceman with a chance to wheel at times on the power play.

Holloway is fast and is establishing himself as a productive on-ice performer at five-on-five. The question about him was always about his offence, and those questions remain.

Based on the numbers each man delivered in Edmonton, a good guess has Broberg emerging as a top-four defenceman of note and Holloway delivering in a middle-six winger role.

Bottom line

The Oilers had a helluva summer, then took a belly flop off the high board.

Nothing that happened will win or lose the Stanley Cup next spring, and the Draisaitl item towers over all things Oilers this summer. The math people adore the Draisaitl signing and are truly flummoxed by anyone who doesn't share their enthusiasm.

Analytics loves the additions of Skinner, Arvidsson, Emberson and Savoie.

Re-signing Henrique, Janmark, Connor Brown, Troy Stecher and Pickard is deemed solid to excellent by the math, too.

The draft, led by the selection of Sam O'Reilly , was a net win.

The offer sheets are a decided downbeat, and the organization was deserving of the universal criticism. Broberg specifically is a player who could come back to haunt the Oilers.

Taken in its entirety, the numbers suggest Edmonton's management improved the team, with a silver lining surrounding the offer sheets (room to wheel financially at the deadline) possibly saving the entire enterprise at the deadline.

Oilers fans evaluate their favourite team in many ways. Some will read a headline asking if the Oilers' summer moves are endorsed by analytics and guffaw, chuckle and roll their eyes.

There's plenty of evidence that previous Oilers management did exactly the same thing when analytics spoke truth.

Those days appear to be gone. With the exception of the offer sheets, Josh Brown and Vasily Podkolzin, math likes the Oilers' summer.

(Photo of Jeff Skinner: Bob Frid / USA Today)