What will winter be like in Arizona? What NOAA, AccuWeather, almanacs predict
Arizona might get drenched with rain and snow this winter.
The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts most of the country should expect a "calmer, gentler" winter this year. That would seem on-par for Arizona, which typically doesn't get a lot of cold weather throughout the year anyway.
Surprisingly, however, the Almanac predicts most parts of Arizona will be getting cooler, wetter winter weather than the rest of the country. It predicts Arizonans should "expect above-average rainfall."
The Almanac specifically predicts the nearby Colorado Rocky Mountains will be seeing an uptick in snowy conditions.
In areas that normally receive snow, including Flagstaff, Pinetop-Lakeside, Bisbee and areas near Mount Lemmon, snowfall will be above normal, with the snowiest periods in mid-December and early February.
The competing Farmer's Almanac says the entire country should "anticipate the winter of 2024-25 will be wet and cold for most locations." In Arizona, it predicts plenty of scattered showers throughout the rest of the calendar year.
AccuWeather predicts 'meteorological twists' and precipitation
Skiers and snowboarders, it's time to break out the snow gear.
"I think skiing in the West is looking really good," wrote AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. "I think it's going to get kick-started right for the holiday season."
AccuWeather predicts atmospheric rivers will "drench" the West Coast, spreading snow over the Rockies, including parts of Arizona.
For Phoenix and Tucson, that spells out a welcome reprieve from scorching summer and fall temperatures.
"Heat will soon fade and the wet season will shift into gear before the official arrival of winter," AccuWeather predicted.
Atmospheric rivers and storms from the Pacific Ocean will first hit the Pacific Northwest and northern California before making their way toward the Rockies as winter gets underway in December.
January could be the wettest month of the winter for cities across the Southwest.
Arizonans can thank La Niña , the periodic natural climate pattern that largely influences weather, for the precipitation.
La Niña is expected to be weak for most of the winter, which allows for more variability. That makes it harder for forecasters to predict when snow storms will hit, and how intense they will be.
Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the northern Pacific could alter the storm track at times during the winter for the West Coast, impacting weather across the entire country.
"That is only part of the story, as waves of frigid air will periodically send freezing air across the country, along with more chances for snow," said AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada.
"Look for a potential shift in the storm track midwinter," Pastelok said. This new pattern will open the door for storms to track farther south over California and push inland.
NOAA calls for below-average temps, above-average moisture
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter forecast and predicted that Arizona will experience below-average temperatures this winter.
It also predicts above-average precipitation.
NOAA warns, however, that the Southwest is still in a drought, despite predictions for a wet winter.
"Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought," said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief."
When does winter start?
That depends.
Meteorological winter, which runs from December to February and defines the seasons we usually think of when we say spring, summer, fall and winter, begins on Sunday, Dec. 1.
Astronomical winter begins on the winter solstice, or the shortest day of the year when the North Pole is tilted away from the sun. This year that's Saturday, Dec. 21.
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