Who’s No. 4 in tonight’s College Football Playoff rankings, plus what rivalry should be saved?
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CFP Rankings Preview
Predicting tonight’s Top 25
The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal a new set of Top 25 rankings at 7 p.m. ET today on ESPN. Here’s my prediction for the top four:
I had Washington in the top four last week, and another win against a ranked opponent (this time at Oregon State) should be enough for the committee to follow suit. Say what you will about Washington losing steam after beating Oregon , the Huskies have found ways to win against some of the best teams, including my No. 6 team. That should trump all else in this discussion.
My prediction for Nos. 5 and 6 tonight:
I am not leaving Florida State out of my top four because of Jordan Travis’ season-ending injury (more on that later). The Seminoles just don’t have the same resume as the other top teams. Oregon should remain at No. 6 with another solid performance, but the Ducks need a rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 championship game (which will happen with a win over Oregon State ) to make a major move in the rankings.
Check out Austin Mock ’s projected rankings here. And in our latest bowl projections from Stewart Mandel and Scott Dochterman, Florida State for No. 3.
In The Committee’s Eyes ...
Should Travis’ injury alter rankings?
When I attended the CFP selection mock exercise in September , our media committee agreed we couldn’t penalize a team for the opponents on their schedule, especially when that team was the only undefeated program entering the postseason (Cincinnati in 2021). We said that with strength of schedule being a key principle in the selection protocol along with conference championships won, head-to-head competition and comparative outcomes.
But here’s the last principle in that selection process: “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected the team’s performance during the season or will likely affect its postseason future.”
The committee could drop Florida State for Travis’ season-ending injury, just like it could have dropped Cincinnati for ranking 80th in schedule strength two seasons ago (according to the committee’s data analytics platform). But it didn’t then, and it shouldn’t now ... at least not yet.
Tonight’s rankings aside, if Florida State goes 13-0 (beating Florida this week on the road and then Louisville in the ACC championship game), the Seminoles should be in, with or without their starting quarterback. Any other decision is based on ambiguity.
You can’t pick a Playoff field based on what-ifs. “What if Cincinnati played in the SEC/Big Ten?” was likely something the committee thought about in 2021, and maybe even discussed, but a hypothetical can’t be the basis of a make-it-or-break-it CFP decision. Similarly, “What if the Seminoles can’t win without Jordan Travis ?” doesn’t have any tangible meaning if FSU wins out. This, of course, is all dependent on Tate Rodemaker going 2-0 as the Seminoles’ starter.
Plus, if you didn’t check it out yesterday, David Ubben makes a solid case for the committee to keep FSU in consideration. Just ask Ohio State in 2014-15 (and that team won it all).
