Why the election might come down to a Trump campaign meltdown in Pennsylvania — again

The chaotic final moments of the 2020 presidential election are etched into the memories of every American — especially if they come from Pennsylvania.

After days of counting ballots, lawsuits and protests in the crucial and deciding state, the Trump presidency came to an end in the parking lot of a landscaping company in an industrial suburb of Philadelphia, next to an adult book store, to the desperate cries of Rudy Giuliani.

This year's race is set to be another nail-biter, and Pennsylvania is the most likely state to decide the result again. So should we expect to see a repeat of that debacle?

The short answer is: Maybe.

Donald Trump is relying on a familiar playbook from his 2020 campaign, casting doubt on the integrity of elections by framing routine processes like how voters cast their ballots or how ballots are counted as bogus evidence of fraud. Nowhere has that been more evident than in Pennsylvania.

The state's unusual election laws have made it a ripe target for bogus election fraud claims for the second election in a row. And while there have been some changes made to avoid a repeat of 2020 chaos, there are still risks.

"My hope is that that preparation work that's gone in ahead of time will mean that, by comparison, things do go more smoothly," Alison Huling, senior legal counsel, voting rights, at the Campaign Legal Center, told The Independent.

But she added that "there's some potential for individuals to try and interfere with the really more bureaucratic, more administerial process of counting the ballots after they are cast."

The 2020 election was so chaotic because of a toxic mix of Trump's lies about the integrity of the vote and the coronavirus pandemic that had swept the nation. Together, they converged in Pennsylvania to create a perfect storm.

Trump spent months before Election Day in 2020 spreading false conspiracy theories about the integrity of mail-in ballots, which were being used in record numbers by Democratic voters to vote safely during the pandemic.

Trump's attacks on mail-in ballots only made Republicans far less likely to use them. That polarized voting divide set up what many election observers described as a "red mirage" on Election Night.

In Pennsylvania, which was to be the deciding state, that was a recipe for disaster. Because mail-in ballots take longer to count, and because the Republican-controlled state legislature had blocked measures to begin processing those ballots before Election Day, Trump was always expected to take an early lead in vote counting. That lead — the red mirage — was expected to fall and eventually disappear as those mail-in ballots were counted.

That is precisely what happened. And as expected, Trump and his allies used this entirely anticipated shift to cry foul and fraud.

Giuliani, the president's personal lawyer, arrived in Philadelphia to announce that the campaign was suing Pennsylvania to stop counting ballots, citing a lack of "transparency" in the process. A few days later, he was live on television at Four Seasons Total Landscaping when the election was called for Joe Biden.

This year, some things are different and some remain the same. Recognizing that his attacks on voting early and by mail actually hurt him in the end, Trump has changed tact this year and encouraged his supporters to do both. That could mean that the "red mirage" of 2020, where Trump took a huge lead on Election Day because most of his supporters voted in person, will be less of an issue.

But while other states have passed laws to make the ballot counting process go quicker, Pennsylvania still does not allow for mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day.

Nate Persily, an election law expert and professor at Stanford Law School, told NBC that the GOP-controlled Pennsylvania legislature "had multiple opportunities to clarify and improve the state's election law."

"It deliberately chose not to. The gaps in the law provide a vacuum that gets filled with conspiracy theories and require the courts to bring coherence to an incoherent regime," he said.

That will mean that in the event of a close race, and Pennsylvania being the deciding state, America may have to wait a few days before the next president is announced.

Philadelphia has made some changes to how it counts the ballots, however, including the use of a high-speed envelope opening machine . An analysis by Votebeat found that Philadelphia city officials purchased more of those machines over the summer, which could allow them to count the traditionally slower mail ballots quicker than in 2020.

Meanwhile, Trump's allies are sharing viral videos that allege wrongdoing, while his campaign has threatened litigation that election law experts warn could be used to lay the groundwork to challenge the results, if he loses.

Viral footage of long lines in Bucks County, where voters were queuing for mail-in ballots to be collected and returned in person, drew complaints from Trump's campaign that the state was suppressing votes.

"Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before," Trump baselessly posted on his Truth Social. "aw Enforcement must act, NOW!"

A statement from Bucks County officials admitted people were "briefly being told they could not be accommodated," but the error was corrected.

"Contrary to what is being depicted on social media, if you are in line by 5pm for an on-demand mail-in ballot application, you will have the opportunity to submit your application for a mail-in ballot," the statement said.

Having gone through the fire four years ago, Philadelphia officials are taking the threat of election interference seriously. The city's district attorney, Larry Krasner, issued a stern warning to anyone thinking about interfering with elections in the city.

"If people think they're going to erase votes in Philly or terrorize people who are here to protect those votes, we've got some handcuffs, we've got some jail cells, and we've got some Philadelphia juries who want to hear why, exactly, it is that somebody thought they could erase our votes or terrorize our elections workers," he told NBC on Thursday, just a few days before the vote.

"As they say in Philly, if somebody wants to come and do that, they can F around and find out," he added.

Although Guliani is still dealing with the consequences of his 2020 post-election escapades, Trump has enlisted another powerful ally in his efforts to cast doubt on Pennsylvania's election results.

Trump's largest donor and the world's wealthiest man, Elon Musk, is being sued over what prosecutors have called an illegal scheme to influence voters by randomly awarding $1 million to people who sign his political action committee's petition.

Krasner sued Musk one week before Election Day. Musk tried to move the case into a federal court. A judge rejected his appeal on November 1.

The district attorney has also warned the courts that Musk's Twitter/X posts against the lawsuit have inspired an "avalanche" of attacks, including antisemitic abuse and calls for masked intruders to invade the DA's home.

His lawsuit marks the first legal action against the billionaire's stunt, which offered people who signed his PAC's petition supporting First and Second Amendment rights the chance to win a random daily $1 million prize drawing.

But the giveaway is only open to registered voters in seven swing states, drawing warnings from election law experts and civil rights groups that it could be seen as an illegal vote-buying operation.

Krasner's office accused Musk of launching an "illegal lottery scheme" to influence voters and argued that only the state of Pennsylvania can administer lotteries. The DA also argued that Musk's claim that the prize is a "random" drawing "appears to be false," according to the lawsuit. "Multiple winners that have been selected are individuals who have shown up at Trump rallies in Pennsylvania," the suit added. Musk denies any suggestion of wrongdoing.

Pennsylvania is the biggest electoral vote state among the seven swing states, with campaigns vying for 19 electoral votes. A victory there means a candidate would only need to win over two other swing states to secure the 270 electoral votes to win the whole election.

The Independent has reached out to Four Seasons Total Landscaping for comment.