WVU expert: Winner may not be the one who raised the most money
Nov. 5—FAIRMONT — As voters go to the polls across the nation today, many may wonder what role money plays in a candidate's victory.
One expert says money might be the lifeblood of a political campaign but it doesn't determine races, according to political scientist Sam Workman, director of the Institute for Policy Research and Public Affairs at West Virginia University.
"The way political scientists think about money and campaigns is that it normally, except at the very, very lowest level, normally takes a certain threshold of campaign finance to get your foot in the door and be a viable candidate and a player," Workman said. "It is not, however, a substitute for political skills. So what you'll see is that you'll have candidates who are incredibly well financed and sometimes better than their opponent, who lose elections all the time."
Marion County candidates for state office raised $332,341 for their election campaigns this political cycle. Average spending was roughly $42,100 but median spending was closer to $21,000. The reason for the skewed distribution was District 76 House Delegate Joey Garcia's District 13 West Virginia Senate campaign, which raised roughly $203,000.
Rebecca Polis, Garcia's opponent, raised roughly $30,600.
However, Garcia was the outlier.
Frankie Delapas, candidate for House of Delegates District 74 raised $4,480. Polis represented the upper end of the typical spectrum. In the competition for House District 75, Stephanie Tomana and Phil Mallow were neck and neck, each raising roughly $29,000. House District 74 candidate Mike DeVault, Rick Garcia and Jon Dodds — opponents in the House District 76 race — raised amounts in the low ten thousands.
As far as spending, Garcia once again skewed the distribution, outspending Polis by roughly $105,000. Although DeVault outraised Delapas in District 74, Delapas outspent DeVault. Delapas used all $4,480 his campaign collected, while DeVault used a little over $2,000. Much of DeVault's money also rolled over from his previous 2022 campaign.
Mallow outspent Tomana by about $2,000. Rick Garcia outspent Dodds by a similar amount.
A look at campaign donations reveals where some of the money for the campaigns came from. Labor unions heavily supported Democratic candidates. The United Mine Workers of America, AFL-CIO, Communications Workers of America and Marion County Labor Federation were among the groups that donated to Democrats.
Groups connected with the auto industry and gas and coal donated heavily to Republicans, as did beer wholesalers. Arch Resources Inc., a political action committee for coal based in St. Louis, Missouri, donated to candidates Mallow and DeVault.
While all candidates had a few individual donations under $250 made to their campaigns, Joey Garcia's campaign took the lead, with 29 donations made in one quarter of collection. Polis' campaign was wholly supported by individual donors, many of whom contributed over $1,000 each in order to compete in the election. She also had a large number of small donors contribute to her campaign. Polis joined the race late, after Jonathan Board dropped out to head the West Virginia First Foundation, the lead agency charged with distributing opioid settlement funds. Polis also loaned herself $5,000 for the campaign.
Democrats showed an affinity for both traditional signs, billboards and more modern social media ad spending, while Republicans preferred billboards, signs and donations to local community groups such as high school sports booster clubs.
Workman said more modern ad campaign methods such as social media targeting allow a candidate to penetrate deeper into communities but may not have the intended result of swaying voters to them. Social media targeting is also beholden to national messaging, meaning microtargeting ad campaigns typically play to the narratives set by national campaigns, even in local elections. However, that doesn't mean they don't matter.
"The microtargeting is, to be honest, not influential at all at convincing a voter of anything but what it does do, and here's where I think it really matters — in a nuanced way — is that it allows you to target groups who were going to prefer the message you're selling anyway," Workman said. "And it probably spurs higher turnout."
