Yankees Potential Free Agent Target: Alex Bregman

We've all had that guy in our lives who's a lot of fun on Friday night, but you're not gonna take him home for Christmas. For me that guy was named Marcus, and the baseball equivalent of that guy might just be Alex Bregman. For most of the first half of 2024, when it looked like the Houston Astros may finally be vulnerable, I was hoping the Yankees would land a deal for the two-time All Star.

That didn't happen, the Astros came back to life, and now Bregman is looking for that one big contract in free agency. I love him as a boy on a Friday night and I could even be talked into spending the weekend at his place, but it's hard for me to get around to anything serious.

Bregman's occupied this odd space where he's simultaneously somewhat underrated, while being right in your face. His 135 wRC+ since the start of 2016 is as good as José Ramírez and Corey Seager, and better than that of fellow 2024-25 free agent Pete Alonso. More specific to the Yankees, the club has only managed a 106 wRC+ from the hot corner after DJ LeMahieu's last really strong season in the COVID-shortened 2020.

Bregman is projected to be ten points better by wRC+ than the apparent incumbent third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. in 2025, and adding Bregman to the lineup would allow the Yankees to better utilize Jazz's natural athleticism and ability to play second, short, third, and presumably all three outfield positions — critically, giving the team another option to get Aaron Judge the hell out of center (more on that next week).

So, for 2024 and '25 I love Alex Bregman in pinstripes. Heck, assuming a normal decline for a guy who will only be 31, I'll even be a buyer in 2026. LeMahieu's career began to tick down at 31; the vaunted Nolan Arenado, the same. For players not named Aaron Judge, that's right around the time when guys start to eat into the surplus value that makes long-term deals worth it in the first place. Bregman was worth four wins this year, and I think he will be next year too. But MLB Trade Rumors is projecting a seven-year, $182 million deal, and if you're peaking at four wins in year one, that's liable to be underwater very quickly.

Here's one reason why I'm worried. This is every extra-base hit Bregman had in 2024, mapped against Minute Maid Park. He flairs a few doubles to right but his goal is to pull the ball to left field. Here's 16 of his 26 home runs, the ones he all hit at home:

And here's how those same Houston home runs map out in the Bronx:

Bregman loses two and maybe three or four with good defense by slugging into the much deeper left field of Yankee Stadium. I'm not going to blame a guy for taking advantage of his home ballpark — Yankee history is littered with guys who lose fly balls to right at just about any other park. But it's this combination of the park he plays in and pretty middling batted ball data that brings me pause.

Bregman really understands his hitting zones — he chases less than 98 percent of hitters in the game. When he offers at a pitch, he tends to make contact, and lofting the ball towards the Crawford Boxes has made him at least $100 million as a professional baseball player. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate are the definition of league median though, and his barrel rate is in the 34th percentile.

Once again, for a Friday night or the weekend, I'll live with it. I'll take 22 home runs and Gold Glove defense from third base, especially given the flexibility he would allow other players to realize. But we're talking about moving in together or about a dog, kids, or a mortgage. Not only does Bregman not start from a pure hitting standpoint as someone like Juan Soto, Soto also has farther to decline before his performance is underwater, which should lengthen his decline and therefore make a long term deal much more palatable.

As to the Culture of it all, that's up to the reader. I've always appreciated that Bregman was never afraid to be the one metaphorically smoking a cigar with Dennis Rodman while the rest of the Astros pretended they weren't the NWO. I think the Yankees do miss some of that in your face attitude, the Jorge Posada effect if you will. Maybe you feel different, and that's OK.

Should Bregman's market collapse, the way we've seen some other big stars over the last couple seasons, I would want the Yankees all over him. If he ends up having to swallow a three-year, $80 million million deal, it better be with New York. I don't think he's going to have to settle for that though, and I just don't think he's the guy you move in with.