Zornio: Hurricane Helene proved nowhere is safe from climate change. Colorado is no exception.
Hurricane Helene was a tragedy few expected. Places like Asheville, North Carolina, were long thought to be a climate refuge by many — too inland and too elevated to be impacted by a storm to this extent. Now, many of these communities have been wiped clear off the map. Coloradans are no stranger to climate-infused natural disasters, either. In 2021, the Marshall fire ripped across Boulder County, killing two and incinerating over 1,100 structures. I was among the many who fled, leaving my home and belongings behind. But just how bad will climate change get?
To answer this question, I reached out to Mike Nelson, a longtime local meteorologist. He quickly offered up some hard numbers on Colorado's recent temperature changes.
"We used to see one day of 100 degrees or hotter in the Denver area each summer. This year we had six days," Nelson wrote. "Without meaningful cuts in CO2 emissions, we will average 20 days over 100 degrees by 2060 and 40 days over 100 by the end of the century. Our climate will be more like that of northern Mexico!" The number of days over 90 degrees is also rising. Nelson noted the Denver region currently averages 47 days per year above 90, with recent trends being much higher. This year is already 64. At this pace, Denver could be looking at up to a third or more calendar days at or above 90 degrees by 2100. Similar warming trends exist statewide. A state-level analysis released by the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University in January found the state had already warmed by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit in average annual temperatures over the past four decades. Another 1 to 4 degrees could be added by 2050, helping contribute to a 5% to 30% loss in river water — a damning prospect for all.
Scientists have long warned that human-accelerated climate change would be catastrophic at a global scale, but it's only more recently that the impact to local communities is being understood by the public. The Marshall fire and Hurricane Helene are but two examples of otherwise typical natural disasters — wildfires and hurricanes — being supercharged by warming temps to wreak havoc at an intensity and location that most never imagined possible.
Wanting to understand more of the science behind Colorado's rapid temperature rise, I reached out to Dr. Scott Denning, an Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University and Visiting Professor of Climate Science at Yale School of the Environment. He was in no way surprised at the extent of the changes already underway.
"Colorado's semi-arid continental climate is warming about 60% faster than the global average," Denning says. "Our mountain snowpack already (has) almost 50% less water than it did 50 years ago and melts about three weeks earlier."
Denning explained that the ocean surface warms more slowly than the global average due to most of the additional downward radiation from enhanced CO2 and water vapor being "used up" to evaporate water. Most land can't do this, he says, and since there's much more ocean than land, land warms up much higher than the global average, while the oceans warm a little less.
Given Colorado is a semi-arid location far from the ocean, the dry soils and vegetation have limited ability to balance incoming radiation by enhanced evaporation. This means we warm at a faster rate. According to Denning's quick visual estimates , he suggests Colorado could reach roughly 3 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures while global average temperatures measure 2C.
"I've looked at station data and our (Colorado's) multiplier is about 1.6. That is, our temps are rising about 60% faster than the global average," he said. For context, Denning notes that areas of the Arctic are warming 200% faster. "Our forests, grasslands, farms and ranches, and cities will require much more water as climate continues to warm," Denning elaborated. "Precipitation is unlikely to increase as fast as water demand, and will fall in more intense storms that cause more frequent flooding. Warming and drying will lead to huge increases in wildfire, deteriorating air quality, and increasing economic impacts to agriculture, tourism, recreation, and public health."
Unfortunately, if you're thinking of packing your bags, think again. This is a global problem that requires a global solution, Denning agrees. There's nowhere he can think of that will escape the effects of climate change, although he is adamant we can and must stop it from getting even worse. "It is imperative that Colorado and the rest of the world transition quickly to a clean energy economy that no longer uses coal, oil and gas," he said. "The faster we make that transition the better for our people, our economy, and the natural systems that make our state a great place to live."
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