Bleacherreport
8 Impossible to Predict MLB Teams This Offseason
N.Adams33 min ago
- Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/ The 2024-25 MLB offseason is here, and it doesn't take much in the way of deep-dive analysis to identify which teams will make noise. The reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers? That's a gimme. Both the New York Mets and the New York Yankees? Well, obviously. The San Diego Padres? A.J. Preller is still in charge, so...probably, yeah. But what about teams that could go either way? Let's focus on eight that are especially hard to predict. Be it money or trade assets, they would seem to have the resources to throw their weight around on the offseason market. Yet for varying reasons, it's hard to take it for granted that they will. Let's check them off in alphabetical order by city.
- Greg Fiume/Projected 2025 Payroll: $96 millionWhat They Could Do See that projected payroll? It's almost $70 million short of what the Orioles spent in 2017, when they opened at a club-record $164.3 million. That, mind you, was before the Angelos family sold the team to David Rubenstein. estimates his net worth at $4 billion , which is more than twice what it cost for him to buy the Orioles earlier this year. When you take pieces like these and put them together with the Orioles' rise as a contender over the last three years, you come away hoping that they could be big spenders this winter. They could, for example, go for broke and re-sign ace right-hander Corbin Burnes and slugging right fielder Anthony Santander. They could otherwise finally lock up core stars like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. If the Orioles fancy a blockbuster trade, their farm system still contains high-value prospects like corner infielder Coby Mayo and catcher Samuel Basallo. Either could be the centerpiece in a trade for an ace such as, say, Garrett Crochet.But What Will They Actually Do? This was Rubenstein speaking in May, according to Childs Walker of : That doesn't sound like a guy who's about to spare no expense. And that would be typical, wouldn't it? The Orioles haven't done so much as a three-year deal with a free agent since 2018. And while they did flex their muscles by trading for Burnes earlier in 2024, even then they refused to part with any of their truly elite prospects.
- Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Projected 2025 Payroll: $136 millionWhat They Could Do The Red Sox had MLB's highest Opening Day payroll in 2018 and 2019 . Both times, they spent about $100 million more than their current projection for 2025. The time is certainly right for the Red Sox to get back in the big-spending game. Though they only had an OK season in 2024, the best parts of it came courtesy of their core of 20-something hitters and pitchers. Accordingly, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has hinted that the team will be "decisive" and "aggressive" in further upgrading the roster around those guys this winter. Breslow has a long list of needs to check off. The Red Sox should in the market for high-caliber arms for both their rotation and their bullpen. They also at least one right-handed hitter, if not two if they can't retain Tyler O'Neill. The Red Sox need not fill all these needs in free agency. B/R's Joel Reuter ranks their farm system at No. 3 in MLB, and even that doesn't fully encompass their trade chips. They could also deal from their surplus of left-handed hitters, whether that means moving first baseman Triston Casas or right fielder Wilyer Abreu or even selling high on All-Star center fielder Jarren Duran.But What Will They Actually Do? Then again, who remembers when the Red Sox were supposed to go " full throttle " last winter? They stuck to doing one- and two-year deals in free agency and used the trade market to both add and subtract pieces. Their most notable move was the trade that sent Chris Sale to Atlanta, which ended up backfiring . There's also just the lingering sense that the big-spending Red Sox of yesteryear are gone for good. They haven't even been in the top 10 of MLB for payroll in the last two years, much less the top five.
- Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Projected 2025 Payroll: $193 millionWhat They Could Do Contrary to the Orioles and Red Sox, the Cubs aren't far below previously established spending capacities. They set a club record with a $214.4 million payroll this year, and one of their highest-paid players is coming back for more. Cody Bellinger declined to use his opt-out, instead choosing a $27.5 million salary for 2025. It is nonetheless notable that the Cubs are likely spending less than they can. And lest anyone forget, it was only last year that they made a run at signing Shohei Ohtani. If the Cubs choose to push harder for a proper free-agent splash, that could be their ticket to adding an impact bat or a starter to complete an already strong rotation. To the first end, the Cubs were repeatedly linked to Pete Alonso whenever his name was on the trade rumor mill. Even the 34 home runs he hit this year would have led the Cubs by nine over Ian Happ. The Cubs are also sitting on the No. 4 farm system in MLB. That means they have many goods to trade, with theoretical targets including Luis Robert Jr., Bo Bichette and Josh Naylor.But What Will They Actually Do? "It's not like we'll say, 'Now we're going to go for it.' We're trying to be consistent. The goal is to be one of the teams that's always trying to win and every year has that opportunity." That was Cubs owner Tom Ricketts speaking earlier this year. My guess is that every Cubs fan remembers those words, or at least understands by now that the team's ownership has limits on what it is willing to invest in the roster. Even if there was a right time to go beyond those, it honestly may not be now. In the scheme of things, the Cubs arguably don't have any truly glaring needs.
- Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Projected 2025 Payroll: $79 millionWhat They Could Do The Tigers have never had a $200 million payroll. But at their peak, they came only about $250,000 shy of crossing that threshold in 2017 . The Tigers have mostly been reluctant to spend since then, but they no longer have the rebuilding excuse. Not after they snapped a 10-year playoff drought. Not after they came within a win of going to the American League Championship Series. For his part, president of baseball operations Scott Harris answered "yes" when asked in October about having full financial support from ownership this winter. "We don't chase payroll thresholds. We chase talent," Harris elaborated. "If there's a talented player we have a conviction on that fits how we play, and fits our clubhouse and he costs money, we are going to pursue them aggressively." Despite this year's playoff berth, the Tigers certainly need more talent. They especially need impact bats for an offense that hasn't ranked higher than ninth in the AL in scoring since 2017. To name just one player, Alex Bregman would be perfect. Otherwise, don't rule out the Tigers extending AL Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal, who is only two seasons away from free agency.But What Will They Actually Do? In the same session in which he indicated the Tigers will be willing to spend this winter, Harris also said this: "The majority of our growth has to come from within." A line like that gives off "stay the course" energy. And specifically regarding the Tigers' need for bats, they may have another issue in that Comerica Park is one of th e least hitter-friendly parks in MLB. This doesn't mean the Tigers can't trade for an impact hitter, as they did for Miguel Cabrera once upon a time. But that would mean dealing from their excellent farm system , and it may be a little too early in their contention cycle to do that.
- Alex Bierens de Haan/MLB Photos via Projected 2025 Payroll: $220 millionWhat They Could Do The Astros are not present here because they have a ton of room to spend this winter. Their 2025 projection only puts them $25 million below what they spent in 2024, and general manager Dana Brown has already warned fans not to get greedy: However, it's too late to tell the Astros not to make Jose Altuve beg to have Alex Bregman back. The 2017 AL MVP was adamant in October that Bregman be back at third base in 2025, saying: "We're not going to be the same organization without him." There's also the question of whether the Astros can work out an extension with star right fielder Kyle Tucker, who's due for free agency after 2025. And if it comes down to doing that or signing Bregman...well, that is just a tough call. As to the potential creativity Brown alluded to, he has indicated that nothing is off the table when it comes to trades. If so, it may not be outside the realm of possibility that the Astros will trade either Tucker or ace left-hander Framber Valdez. They could save significant money by doing so, as Tucker ($15.8M) and Valdez ($17.8M) are projected for ample raises in arbitration.But What Will They Actually Do? Whereas the Orioles, Red Sox, Cubs and Tigers are on this list for their capacity to disappoint, the Astros truly are unpredictable in every sense of the word. Them keeping Bregman would be just as surprising as them letting him go. And if they do keep him, it wouldn't be surprising if they pulled a Roy Halladay-in, Cliff Lee-out switcheroo by subsequently trading Tucker or Valdez. In any case, probably the only sure bet for Houston's offseason is that it will end up being mighty interesting.
- Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Projected 2025 Payroll: $155 millionWhat They Could Do That the Giants' projected 2025 payroll is about $53 million below where they opened 2024 isn't even the most interesting aspect of their offseason. How could it be, given that another storyline concerns this being Buster Posey's first winter as the club's president of baseball operations? Posey and newly anointed general manager Zack Minasian have their work cut out for them. The Giants have been tethered to mediocrity for the better part of the last decade, and their list of free agents includes a very good hitter in Michael Conforto and an even better pitcher in Blake Snell, who opted out of his deal on Friday. In addition to those two needs, the Giants are weak on the middle of their infield and should probably consider upgrading their bullpen. After an All-Star season in 2023, Camilo Doval's 2024 campaign was a walk-filled nightmare. Otherwise, will this finally be the winter that the Giants connect on a big swing? They famously couldn't do so in past pursuits of Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. But if they can land Juan Soto this winter, all will be forgiven.But What Will They Actually Do? The Giants reeling in a superstar hitter should only be believed when such a thing is seen. There's no doubting the sincerity of the team's past efforts, but there's at least one good reason its ability to do so must be doubted. And that reason is Oracle Park, which attracts sluggers like kryptonite attracts Kryptonians. The good news is that Posey has already proven himself as an effective salesman for the Giants as an institution. But if that doesn't work in free agency, the team notably doesn't have much to offer as a trading partner. Its farm system is the worst in MLB .
- Mitchell Layton/Projected 2025 Payroll: $183 million Among other things, the Rangers' championship run in 2023 proved that teams built around free agents can be good, actually. This is relevant because the Rangers don't have much choice but to be active in free agency again this winter. Among the guys they stand to lose to the open market are starters Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney, as well as ace closer Kirby Yates. "You've heard this before, but we're going to pursue pitching," GM Chris Young said in October. "There's no doubt we're going to need more pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen, but I am excited about the arms we have." They reportedly want to avoid the $241 million luxury tax threshold for 2025. Per their current projections , that gives them room to add only about $50 million in average annual value to their books for next season. The only way to increase that figure is by trading veterans. Among that bunch, slugger Adolis García ($9.3M) and first baseman Nathaniel Lowe ( $10.7M ) have salaries that could really open things up for the Rangers if they were moved.But What Will They Actually Do? Like with the Astros, the question here isn't so much what the Rangers will do, but rather how they'll do it. Them making another splash in the style of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien or Jacob deGrom shouldn't be out of the question, but that would leave little left over for the other boxes they have to check. And could they be an under-the-radar candidate for a blockbuster trade? They just might be, as they have a solid farm system that is notably well-stocked with arms.
- Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post via Projected 2025 Payroll: $91 millionWhat They Could Do It was only five years ago that the Nationals won the World Series, and just three years ago that they opened with a $183.1 million payroll. You know, just in case anyone doesn't remember the Nationals used to be a capital-P Player. Though it ended up being the team's second straight 91-loss season, the vibes in Washington undeniably took a turn toward the better in 2024. The young talent base that the club had been building toward is in place, which has GM Mike Rizzo feeling feisty. "I think we need to improve ourselves in any avenue we can," Rizzo said in September. "Free agency will certainly be one of the avenues that we'll attack to improve. Also we have to look at the trade market and the development market. We have to be hitting on all of those cylinders to get us where we want to go." The notion of the Nationals reuniting with Juan Soto simultaneously feels ridiculous and realistic. They should be able to afford him, and he would bring 40-homer power to an offense that produced only 135 long balls this year. As the Nationals were also deficient at third base ( -0.5 rWAR ) and first base (0.3 rWAR) this year, deals with Alex Bregman and/or Pete Alonso should also be in play.But What Will They Actually Do? For starters, it's hard to take Rizzo seriously when he alludes to working the trade market. The Nationals aren't short on young talent, but you have to figure that elite-level prospects like outfielder Dylan Crews, third baseman Brady House and right-hander Travis Sykora are untouchable. And if so, that probably nixes blockbuster possibilities. As for the Soto, the Nationals are likely a long shot relative to the New York clubs and the Dodgers. It's easier to imagine them luring Bregman or Alonso, but perhaps only if they outbid teams whose contention windows are more open than theirs.
Read the full article:https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10142062-8-impossible-to-predict-mlb-teams-this-offseason
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