2024-25 Spurs offensive preview

Nobody would call the 2023-24 San Antonio Spurs an offensive juggernaut. Their leading scorer was a rookie, and they finished near the bottom half of the league in just about every offensive metric. Yet, there were times when the team was clicking and looked like the ball-moving, shot-making Spurs of old.

San Antonio's offensive success came when its best players were on the floor. The Silver and Black posted an overall 110 offensive rating (26th in the NBA) but when they played Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Victor Wembanyama together, that offensive rating jumped to 117. There is room for optimism that this year's Spurs will be even better offensively with an influx of talent that includes Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes and Stephon Castle.

It's hard to determine just what exactly this improved Spurs squad will look like next season. With just three weeks until the first preseason game, my mind is racing to figure out the strengths and weaknesses of next year's team.

Strength: Shot creation The Spurs have amassed a number of players that can create their own shot in the half-court. Wembanyama highlights a group that is expected to make the leap offensively. After settling into the NBA, Wemby looked like a dominant offensive force. He averaged 23.5 points on 45.7% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from deep post All-Star break. The entire basketball world expects Wembanyama to be even better in his second season, and with that should come more shot creation in the post and on the perimeter.

San Antonio's guards are solid creators, too. Vassell had the best season of his career, averaging 19.5 points on efficient shooting. He got better at aggressively getting to the basket to compliment his dynamic outside game. Paul isn't quite the player he used to be, but his mid-range jump shot is still money. On top of his next-level basketball IQ, he has the handle and pace to create shots in the half-court. A revitalized Johnson could have a bounce-back season as the 6th man, and I'm not yet giving up on Malaki Branham becoming a more consistent scorer in the second unit.

Weakness: Three-point shooting San Antonio struggled mightily to hit shots from deep last season. They finished 28th in three-point percentage, hitting 34.7% of their threes. Despite adding two players who shot above 35% in Barnes and Paul, they still have too many non-shooters for this to become an offensive strength.

The Spurs had three players shoot over 36% on deep shots last season: Julian Champagnie, Vassell and Cedi Osman (who is gone.) They are counting on big improvements from players who haven't proven to be consistent shooters. Sochan's shot is being completely reworked and is a complete wild card. Wembanyama can seemingly stretch the floor, but hasn't hit deep shots consistently to be relied on from out there. Zach Collins, Johnson, Branham and Jones are inconsistent shooters at best. Castle shot below 30% from deep in college. Outside of Vassell, Paul, Barnes and Champagnie, it's hard to feel great about the shooting ability of these Spurs.

Strength: Half-court offense and ball movement The one offensive metric the Spurs thrived in last year was assists. Would you expect anything different from a Gregg Popovich team? San Antonio moved the ball well and were led by an offensive mastermind. Whether it be the high-low offense with Wembanyama and Collins, or the flex sets to get Vassell open looks, Popovich was in his bag last season. Now he will have Paul to lead pick and rolls, a Swiss army knife guard like Castle to experiment with and another season to design plays for Wembanyama.

With more offensive weapons, I expect Pop's X's and O's game to be at its best and for the Spurs to continue moving the ball well.

Weakness: Ball security Even with CP3, turnovers will likely continue to be an issue for the Silver and Black. Last season, San Antonio had the 3rd most turnovers in the NBA (15.1 per game). A bulk of those came from their superstar unicorn. Wembanyama averaged 3.7 giveaways a game. Key players like Vassell, Sochan and Jones all coughed the ball up over 1.5 times a game.

The Spurs play fast. They get a lot of offensive possessions and pass a lot. Turnovers are going to happen. The hope is that the vets can help the team cut down on all the mistakes.

Strength: Transition offense The Spurs were third in pace of play last year. They want to go fast and get shots up in a hurry. One of San Antonio's best offensive plays was the lob to Wembanyama on the break. After a whole year with the 7-foot-5 big man, the players know they can just throw it up to him and create an offensive advantage. With more familiarity and better playmakers, the Spurs transition game should be even better in 2024-25.