2024-25 winter outlook: Weak La Niña could bring warmer & wetter conditions to metro Detroit
The National Weather Service released its 2024-2025 winter outlook for Southeast Michigan on Thursday. The 90-day outlook details the potential winter weather for metro Detroit from Dec. 1, 2024 through Feb. 28, 2025.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the predicted winter weather will be influenced by a slowly-developing La Niña.
That pattern is expected to bring a higher probability for above-average temperatures and wetter-than-average conditions for Southeast Michigan.
According to the Climate Prediction Center's outlook, there's a 35% chance for above-average temps, a 32% chance for below-normal and 33% for near normal. However, for precipitation, it's a 45% chance for above-normal, 22% below normal and 33% near normal.
The NOAA said that after a strong El Niño last winter, La Niña is expected to return this winter. It has a 60% probability to develop during the September-November season and is expected to persist through the January-March 2025 season once it does emerge.
"Only four La Niña episodes since 1950 have formed this late in the year, and all of those were either weak or on the border of weak and moderate. This La Niña is also forecast to be a weak event – this means that the typical impacts of La Niña may be dominated by other weather and climate phenomena that aren't predictable at this time range," the NOAA said in a presentation about Southeast Michigan weather.
According to the NOAA, La Niña will influence atmospheric circulation patterns this winter and have implications on the local conditions for the Great Lakes. That can mean wetter-than-average winters and high variability in temperatures – meaning alternating cold outbreaks and mild streaks.
The NOAA said that the forecast is not a snowfall outlook, but above-average precipitation could favor above-average snowfall if the precipitation events happen during colder episodes.
The most-recent weak La Niña happened in 2022-23 and in that time, we had an above-normal average winter temperature (33.4 compared to 28.4 on average), above-average precipitation (8.38 inches compared to 6.56 inches) and below-average snowfall (18.7 inches compared to 35.4 inches).
"Despite odds favoring a warmer and wetter winter overall, that does not rule out cold outbreaks, dry streaks, and periods of heavy snow which remain a possibility like in any other winter," the NOAA said.
The organization also said that drought conditions are expected to improve over the winter.
