Aaron Judge is in the midst of a historic MVP race

Whenever a friend or someone has asked me about WAR, I always go with Baseball Reference's general guidelines of "8+ MVP, 5+ A-S, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, < 0 Replacement." It is not a stat that should be interpreted as any exact measurement, and this scale is not scripture, but I think it's generally the right idea. On that scale, the American League could very well feature four MVP-level position players, not to mention two all-time great seasons among them.

Readers of this site are likely familiar with the work of one Aaron Judge. He is amazing, and even despite the "rough" stretch we have seen recently, he should still be viewed as the frontrunner for the AL MVP. After play on Wednesday, he has 53 homers and is slashing .321/.425/.689, good for an obscene 213 wRC+. That final number is the highest in Junior Circuit history since Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams in 1957. He has also once again surpassed the 10.0 fWAR mark, after posting a whopping 11.1 in his 2022 campaign. These numbers are hard to contextualize, because they almost never happen, but Judge is once again putting up one of the great season's in the game's history.

There has been plenty of Judge coverage here, every bit of which has been deserved, but beyond 99's second truly historic season in three years, there has been MVP-caliber play all over the Junior Circuit.

Bobby Witt Jr. has also now met the 10.0 fWAR mark, fully delivering on his immense promise with a season for the ages. He is boasting a 168 wRC+, and his fWAR is tied for third (with '02 Alex Rodriguez), and behind only two MVP winners in Cal Ripken Jr. and Lou Boudreau for the most valuable shortstop seasons in AL history. He's leading the upstart Royals toward the postseason, and if it weren't for Judge, would be a slam-dunk MVP winner. That gets said frequently for MVP runner-ups, but it really is the case this time. Witt's 168 wRC+ would also be the third best by a qualified shortstop since the turn of the century, behind Nap Lajoie in 1904 and Corey Seager's 119-game 2023 season.

If both Judge and Witt are able to maintain that 10.0 fWAR or better, it would be a historic season of co-production. It would be the first year with two different players to reach that mark in the AL in over 60 years, when Mantle and Detroit's Norm Cash did so with a pair of stellar runs. Interestingly, for the sake of this , neither Cash nor The Mick won MVP that year, given Roger Maris' record-breaking 61 home runs.

That serves as a solid segue into the second tier of likely vote-getters, The Yankees ' Juan Soto, and Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson. Judge's teammate in the outfield is having himself a career-best season in his pinstripes debut. For as historically great as Soto has started his still-young career, 2024 has been a step above, topping 40 homers for the first time and boasting career bests in wRC+ (181) and fWAR (7.8).

Gunnar Henderson has been just about as good as Soto in his sophomore season for the Orioles. The uber-talented infielder has followed up his Rookie of the Year campaign with an MVP-level performance, slashing .281/.365/.538, and stands even with Soto at 7.8 fWAR. He's been at the center of this Orioles team that has stuck with the Yankees all season, and much like Witt or Soto, there are times where he would be a legitimate MVP Candidate. But, with the heights reached at the top, he has largely exited the conversation.

With Soto and Henderson creeping toward that "MVP" level 8.0 WAR mark, we could see even more history. Beyond the significance of two 10-win players, 2024 could reasonably be the first season with four 8-win (by fWAR) players in some time. There were three in 1985; Rickey Henderson, Wade Boggs, and Don Mattingly. But fittingly, there haven't been four since that 1961 season, with Mantle, Cash, Rocky Colavito, and Jim Gentile. While we aren't quite there yet, Soto and Henderson are certainly in range, and we still have Judge and Witt to marvel at in the meantime.

We went through the cycle of seeing the once-in-a-lifetime marks Aaron Judge regularly passed in 2022, and he has basically come out and done it again in 2024. But there is history being made elsewhere, with Witt still somehow on his tail in the race, while Soto and Henderson are putting up mammoth seasons in their own right. Even Brent Rooker's 171 wRC+ is third-best in the league, and Jarren Duran has posted 8.5 bWAR. For a season where no team has jumped ahead of the pack, the top of the American League's talent on the individual level is at some of the best in its history.