Bills at Texans, NFL Week 5: Can Buffalo slow down Houston’s aerial attack?

This afternoon, the Buffalo Bills face off against the Houston Texans , marking a pivotal moment in both teams' seasons. The story line grabbing most of this week's attention is Stefon Diggs facing his former team after being traded to the Texans this offseason.

The Bills' defense, despite injuries throughout, will be tasked with slowing down a Texans offense led by rising star quarterback C.J. Stroud and a standout receiving corps, including Diggs and NFL reception yards leader Nico Collins.

Here's how these teams stack up in this showdown between AFC contenders.

Houston Texans offense: Explosive numbers, stunted scoring The Texans' offense has thrived through the air, ranking third in passing yards per game (257.8). However, their ability to turn yards into points has been hampered, as they sit at 17th in points per game (19.8).

A big part of their scoring struggles stems from self-inflicted wounds. The Texans lead the NFL in penalties, averaging 10 per game, including a remarkable three straight games with 10 or more penalties. They have committed the most false starts (12) and are sixth in holding penalties (7). Houston's lack of discipline has been a drive killer, but their offense can be explosive when they execute.

The Texans love to attack the middle of the field with their passing game, as highlighted in their passing direction chart above. Stroud's connection with Nico Collins over the middle has been deadly by producing chunk plays, but penalties and stalled drives have limited their overall scoring.

Check out just how special Stroud has been at throwing over the middle since he entered the NFL:

C.J. Stroud: A tale of two coverages Stroud burst onto the scene last year as a rookie and put the Texans back on the map. He's proven to be more than a one-hit wonder with another solid start to his sophomore campaign.

Stroud currently sits 11th in the NFL in passer rating (98.4) with 1,054 passing yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions all the while completing 67.6% of his passes. He's shown poise in the pocket and has the ability to make throws anywhere on the field. Stroud is known for his pinpoint accuracy but as defenses had a year to study up on him and the Texans' offense, they are starting to key in on slowing down Houston's passing attack.

Against man coverage, Stroud boasts a 78.8% completion rate (2nd in the NFL) and a stellar 134.4 passer rating (4th) according to Player Profiler . However, when facing zone defenses, Stroud has struggled — with a 60.5% completion rate (22nd) and a passer rating of 83.6 (23rd). This disparity is important, considering the fact that the Texans have seen a ton of zone coverage so far this season.

The chart above illustrates how the Texans have seen the highest rate of Cover 2 zone played against them this season. These insights reveal that Stroud and Houston's offense have been significantly worse when facing zone coverage, especially Cover 2. This disparity is an important one, and I'll discuss why when we review the Bills' defense.

Texans WRs: A dangerous trioNico Collins

Collins is the top target for Stroud, leading the NFL with 489 receiving yards. The fourth-year pro has emerged as one of the most dominant wide receivers in the NFL, and he excels at route running — posting a league-high 77 route wins according to Player Profiler. He excels in both man and zone coverage, with a 42.6% win rate against man and 55.3% versus zone.

Collins and Stroud's chemistry has made them the most efficient duo in terms of EPA per play this season. The connection between Stroud and Collins should be Buffalo's number-one priority to stop.

Stefon Diggs

Diggs has 25 catches for 233 yards and two touchdowns since joining the Texans. His numbers might not be elite but his route running remains so — Diggs matches Collins with 77 route wins and his 61.3% route win rate against zone coverage will be key facing the Bills' defensive scheme, as he is averaging 2.31 yards of separation versus zone according to Player Profiler . Expect Diggs to be highly motivated to deliver a big game against his former team.

Tank Dell

Dell missed Week 4 with an injury but is expected to return for Week 5. While his season hasn't taken off as expected, he adds another weapon to Houston's offense. Dell has nine receptions for 99 yards this season. Even though Dell has struggled thus far, he offers the Texans' offense a shifty slot option who can take some pressure off of Collins and Diggs.

Here are all of the Houston Texans' wide receiver statistics when facing zone coverage in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF) .

Buffalo Bills defensive overview Buffalo's defense is built to handle explosive passing attacks, allowing just 165.3 passing yards per game (6th best). They excel in limiting yards after the catch and deep passes, thanks in part to their zone-heavy coverage schemes, playing zone coverage a whopping 76.3% of the time — which ranks 9th in the NFL according to PFF . The Bills lead the NFL (in a good way) in yards-per-reception-allowed (8.3) and yards-per-target-allowed in zone coverage (5.8), proving their ability to contain dynamic offenses like Houston's. The chart below shows just how good the Bills are at limiting the deep pass.

Buffalo's secondary is banged up, with Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas starting at cornerback, and Cam Lewis stepping in at nickel cornerback with Taron Johnson injured. Safeties Damar Hamlin and Cole Bishop will also have to fill the void left by the injured Taylor Rapp. Despite these challenges, the Bills' secondary is well-equipped to succeed when matching up against Houston's talented receivers

The Bills play the sixth-most Cover 2 in the NFL according to the Football Insights tweet above. This is significant given the Texans' struggles versus zone coverage and them facing the most Cover 2 in the league as I mentioned above. This matchup squares up nicely for the Bills' secondary. Now it just comes down to executing and taming the high amount of skill the Texans trot out onto the field.

Bills pass rush vs. Texans pass protection Buffalo's pass rush will be without edge rusher Von Miller who begins his four-game suspension in Week 5. They will also be missing defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Austin Johnson due to injury.

Houston starting right tackle Tytus Howard is questionable for the game. The Texans have already given up 13 sacks this season, which is the 13th-most in the NFL. The Bills are 10th in the NFL with 12 total sacks.

C.J. Stroud has the second-highest stunt sack rate (22.6%), meaning the Bills will likely use defensive line stunts to generate pressure, especially when considering they will be down a few players on the D-line. If the Bills can generate any type of pressure versus Stroud, it will be a positive complement to their secondary slowing down the Texans' passing attack.

Keys to success for Buffalo Bills' defense

Play Cover 2: Stroud has struggled against zone coverage, especially when facing Cover 2 schemes. Buffalo's success could hinge on disguising coverages and forcing Stroud into uncomfortable throws.Protect the Middle: Houston loves attacking over the middle, so the Bills need to be disciplined and force Stroud to the outside, where he's less effective. The linebackers in underneath overage need to be on their toes and constantly aware of how the wide receivers are moving throughout their route. They must keep their eyes on the receivers not stare at the quarterback!D-Line Stunts: Houston's O-line is dealing with some injury concerns and Stroud struggles against stunts, so Buffalo should prioritize creative pressure packages to disrupt his rhythm.Contain Nico Collins: Collins has been Stroud's go-to weapon, and limiting his production will be key in stifling Houston's offense.Spoil Diggs' Revenge Game: Stefon Diggs will be motivated, but the Bills' secondary can't let his personal story line take over the game. Keeping Diggs in check is a must.

In Summary Today's game holds plenty of interesting matchups between Buffalo's solid secondary and Houston's talented passing attack. With the Texans prone to penalties and the Bills' ability to contain the deep ball, Buffalo is well positioned to keep Houston's offense in check with them playing predominantly zone coverage.

The key will be whether the Bills can execute and force Stroud into mistakes and keep Stefon Diggs from lighting up the scoreboard in his first game versus his old team.