Black Friday calms down as online shopping has reshaped the retail landscape

Shoppers come and go from Menards in Schererville in the early morning hours of Black Friday November 24, 2023. (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune) (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune)

So Friday was Christmas shopping on the technical first day of the season, and Parker Ward was far from impressed.

Ward, of Gary, and pal Alexander Padgitt, of Schererville, said they’d spent Thanksgiving night touring a haunted road when they decided to try their luck during the legendary Black Friday early morning consumer extravaganza at Highland Grove. Turns out they didn’t need luck; they didn’t even need to drive around for a parking space.

“We just didn’t go to sleep,” Ward said, peeking into the bag of toys he picked up for his kids. “The whole point of coming was to see the crowds, but this wasn’t worth it.”

George Bravo of Crown Point stopped by Target in Highland unexpectedly on November 24, 2023 after receiving a sale notification on his phone from the store's app telling him of a Black Friday deal on a video gaming console. (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune) (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune)

“We were hoping to see something, at least,” Padgitt added. “But people don’t go to stores anymore.”

While Black Friday may no longer look like the crowd-filled, in-person mayhem that it was just decades ago — in large part due to the rising dependence on online shopping that was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic — the holiday sales event is still slated to attract millions of consumers. The National Retail Federation projects that an estimated 182 million are planning to shop in-stores and online through the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. Black Friday is set to lead the charge, making up for 130.7 million of the potential shoppers.

At the same time, economists note that fear of inflation, while down from a year ago , is still a concern looming in consumers’ minds — and could lead to somewhat modest spending this season.

Parker Ward of Gary exits Target in Highland with holiday gifts during the early morning hours of Black Friday November 24, 2023. (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune) (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune)

Starting in the 1980s, retailers nationwide began claiming that Black Friday represented the time when they went from operating in the red to the black as sales boost profits. But since many operate in the black at various times of the year, this interpretation should be taken with a grain of salt, experts say.

In recent decades, Black Friday became infamous for floods of people in jam-packed stores and endless lines of shoppers camped out at midnight in hopes of scoring deep discounts, as the Magnant-Philbin family of Lowell explained to their youngest, Harper Philbin.

“They told me people threw things at each other and would hide stuffed animals in other aisles to hide them,” Harper said as she sipped on her Starbucks drink.

Harper Philbin of Lowell describes her first Black Friday shopping experience outside Target in Highland on November 24, 2023. (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune) (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune)

“This year, we didn’t have to run,” matriarch Maureen Magnant said, laughing.

The rise of online shopping has made it easier to do most, if not all, holiday purchases from your couch. And while malls and in-person stores have bounced back to decent-sized crowds compared to the start of the pandemic, the growing strength of e-commerce isn’t going away.

The peak of brick and mortar retail sales for the month of November was seen 20 years ago, according to Jay Zagorsky, a clinical associate professor at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business. In 2003, e-commerce accounted for just 1.7% of total retail sales in the fourth quarter, per the U.S. Commerce Department .

Niki Martinez of Griffith, left, and Audrey White of Dyer stop by Target in Highland to do some shopping during the early morning hours of Black Friday November 24, 2023. (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune) (Michael Gard/Post-Tribune)

Unsurprisingly, online sales make up for a much bigger slice of the pie today. For last year’s holiday season, e-commerce accounted for about 16.3% of all nonadjusted retail sales in the fourth quarter, according to the Commerce Department. That’s up from 12.7% seen at the end of 2019.

Beyond the rise of online shopping, the prices of some big ticket items that historically attracted swaths of in-person shoppers — like a new TV — are significantly cheaper than they were decades ago, Zagorsky adds. About 20 years ago, for example, Zagorsky says a new flatscreen TV would typically go for several thousand dollars — meaning that a 15% or 20% off Black Friday deal could mean saving hundreds. But today, consumers can find a comparable 32-inch model for as low as $80.

“20% off an $80 TV is $16... I’m not standing in line at midnight for $16,” he said, noting that shoppers can also find those deals from the comfort of their homes online today — and, of course, before and beyond the day after Thanksgiving.

And It’s no secret that Black Friday sales don’t last 24 hours anymore. Today, you might be getting emails with Black Friday-like sales even before Halloween, Zhang said.

Beyond deals bearing the Black Friday name, post-Thanksgiving holiday shopping is now kicked off by multiple shopping events — including Small Business Saturday and Cyber Monday, which emerged officially back in 2005 with a name from the National Retail Federation’s online arm.

Cyber Monday (and, at this point, Cyber Week) in particular has skyrocketed in the e-commerce era. According to Adobe Analytics , consumers spent a record total of $11.3 billion on Cyber Monday in 2022 , marking the biggest online shopping event of the year. During the peak hour, shoppers spent $12.8 million each minute.

Black Friday, like other sales events, continues to live online too — but not with these kinds of e-commerce numbers. And while it may not look the same as it did decades ago, in-person Black Friday shopping won’t vanish entirely. Zagorsky points to the social appeal and pleasure consumers experience when making purchases in stores, as well as the fact that people are more likely to do their retail shopping on a Friday than other weekdays.

That’s how sisters Jeanette Jennings, of Highland, and Debbie Derolf, of Calumet Township, view it. The two women, along with Derolf’s daughter, Niki Martinez, of Griffith, and “honorary” daughter Audrey White, of Dyer, have been shopping Black Friday for at least 35 years, and they have no plans to stop, especially when it comes to getting their kids and grandkids toys.

“We love the tradition of it,” Jennings said. “The kids may not be into it, but we still are.”

Of course they noticed that there were way less people out and about first thing Friday — online shopping has a lot to so with that, Derolf pointed out — but shopping the extra-early deals isn’t always the best idea, either, she said.

“With kids, they like video games and change their minds every other day over what they want,” she said. “You hate to buy something in July and then they open it and say, ‘I didn’t want this.’”

George Bravo, of Crown Point, got exactly what he wanted for Christmas and wasn’t afraid to tell his bosses.

“I was heading to work, and I got a notification from Target that they have the PS5 for $349.99, so I notified my work that I was going to be a half-hour or hour late,” Bravo said. “For the past two years, people have camped out even when the prices were crazy, so I had to do it.”