Dallas Stars Afterwords: What You Should Expect
In the age of parity, I often think we expect a bit too much from the top NHL teams.
That is to say, on paper, when you have a Cup Contender if not Favorite (the Dallas Stars) playing against a Lottery Contender if not Favorite (the Chicago Blackhawks), the initial gut expectation is that the better team is going to crush the worse one. That it'll be a 5-1 route, or something similar, and perhaps a shining example of that all too illusive 60-minute game .
But the vast majority of the time, that doesn't happen. Upsets are a thing, and the gap between even the worst NHL team and the best is closer than you would think. And so we get results like the Stars beating Chicago 3-1, in which the Stars lost the special teams battle and their lead was padded by an empty net goal.
On paper, that is a stark contrast to the dominance we might expect. And yet, watching the game, I can't help but feel that Dallas did dominate the game, and arguably for the "full 60 minutes" too. They dominated the first period in terms of offensive zone time and pressure, more or less did the same in the second, and then when they (understandably) took their foot off the gas in the third, that just brought us closer to an "even" matchup as opposed to things swinging in favor of Chicago.
It wasn't just offense either. Jake Oettinger was at his best in the net, and the blueline was (for the most part) penalty kill were solid. Dallas also killed Chicago in the faceoff circle, with Jamie Benn alone going 16-for-16. Sure, the Stars made some careless mistakes here and there (see: the Connor Bedard breakaway, Oettinger getting out of position at the wrong times), but they would then immediately remedy them (see: Esa Lindell stripping the puck from Bedard, Oettinger bailing himself out with crazy saves).
All in all, if there was any real criticism about the Stars' performance, it was the power play, which is more of a team issue than a single game one. Things like the low score have more to do with bad puck luck (Arvid Soderblom was, in my opinion, good but not great despite the statline) than anything else.
Which brings me back to my original point: we tend to over-estimate how much we expect a good team to beat a bad team. Sometimes, it's not a 5-1 romp where the result was never in doubt. Sometimes, it's a 3-1 empty net goal win that made you nervous towards the end, but overall walking away happy and confident.
• So about that power play: I think one of the many problems the Stars have is that they do not handle an aggressive penalty kill well.
Dallas likes to take their time on the power play, shuffling the puck to the point and back and to the point and back until they setup that "perfect scoring opportunity" that they can drive home. They want the tip in front or the screened shot, not the rebound or the wraparound or etc. And that becomes much harder to do when you have a penalty kill attack your puck carriers and force you to make quicker, non-ideal passes in order to maintain possession.
We saw this last night against Chicago, and we also saw it in the home opener against the New York Islanders, among other examples. The drawbacks of an aggressive penalty kill are apparent (more prone to mistakes, opens larger gaps towards the middle of the net, etc.), but you can only take advantage of those if you adapt your power play approach. Dallas doesn't, and so they flounder about trying to "play their game" and getting pinched out as a result.
• Sam Steel had a fantastic night, and not just because of the goal and the assist. There were multiple times in the first or second period where I thought he had a good chance of scoring, and he was one of the most notable players out there when on the ice.
Does that suddenly make him a Top 6 forward? Of course not — every dog has their day, and as David Castillo pointed out , simply having higher quality linemates didn't exactly make him breakout with the Minnesota Wild. But he is a solid Bottom 6 forward who can slide up if need be due to injuries and 1) note be a liability, and 2) be a potential difference maker. He was both of those and some more last night.
• I would make a joke about Logan Stankoven padding his Calder Trophy stats with the empty net goal last night, but it was a back-handed shot that went across the ice and landed dead eye in the middle of the net. So yeah, he deserves that goal, lack of a warm body in net or not.
