D.C.-area forecast: Temperatures head back into above-normal territory this week

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

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Bright sunshine, 50s and a fine November day overall.

Express forecast

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs: 54 to 59.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows: 36 to 43.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, blustery. Highs: 53 to 58.

Forecast in detail

Since early October, we’ve seen a pattern that will repeat yet again this week: above-normal temperatures and below-average precipitation. Highs most days this week are near 60 or higher, even as averages slip into the upper 50s. Dry conditions prevail much of the week, although we could see some rain on Friday night.

Today (Monday): It’s a very nice November day with lots of sun. While we start the day in the 30s (even some upper 20s in our colder suburbs), afternoon highs reach the mid- to upper 50s and there’s little in the way of wind. Light breezes are from the south at around 5 to 10 mph during the afternoon. Confidence: High

Tonight: Under partly cloudy skies, it’s seasonably chilly. A weak cold front passes overnight, kicking up breezes from the northwest a bit toward morning. Lows range from the mid- to upper 30s in our colder areas to the low 40s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Behind the cold front that passed overnight, it’s a bit blustery. We’ll have plenty of sun but, with winds from the northwest gusting over 20 mph at times, it’s feels colder than any other day this week. Highs range from the low 50s in our colder areas to the mid- to upper 50s elsewhere. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Winds ease, but it’s a cold one. Under clear skies, lows range from the upper 20s in our colder areas to the mid-30s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A look ahead

Wednesday and Friday we’ll see a steady warming trend. There’s a lingering chill on Wednesday with highs in the mid-50s to near 60. Thursday sees highs increase to 60 to 65, while they jump to 65 to 70 on Friday. Wednesday and Thursday feature lots of sun while some clouds may increase on Friday with a chance of showers during the afternoon. Nighttime temperatures are moderate during this stretch, with lows mostly in the 30s on Thursday and in the 40s on Friday. Confidence: Medium

Friday night brings the week’s best chance of rain, but it’s unclear how substantial it might be. The American model is simulating heavy downpours, while the European model projects spottier showers. We lean more toward the European but will refine this forecast as the week wears on. Lows on Friday night are in the 40s. Confidence: Medium

should offer mostly clear skies and somewhat cooler but seasonable temperatures. Highs Saturday are probably in the mid- to upper 50s, with upper 50s and low 60s on Sunday. Lows Saturday night should be mostly in the 30s. Confidence: Medium