Forecast worsens - Up to 16 inches of snow and high winds forecasted for Greater Cleveland

CLEVELAND, Ohio - The forecast keeps getting worse for the winter storm expected to occur in Northeast Ohio Monday night and last through Tuesday, with up to 16 inches of snow now expected.

The National Weather Service issued a lake-effect snow warning at 10 a.m. on Monday, forecasting heavy snow from 9 p.m. Monday and throughout Tuesday. An update at 2:27 p.m. predicts conditions worse than initially announced.

The worst of it is expected to hit Lake and Ashtabula counties, where 8 to 16 inches of snow are forecasted, the updated warning from the National Weather Service said Monday afternoon, adding a couple of inches to the forecast from the morning.

The heaviest snow is expected Monday night with snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches per hour at its most severe. Travel is expected to be very difficult or impossible, according to the weather service.

In far-eastern Cuyahoga County, amounts could reach 10 to 15 inches, with accumulation rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour.

The forecast for Cleveland Hopkins International Airport in western Cuyahoga County calls for 4 to 8 inches, with 2 inches possible Monday night.

The weather service warned there could be significant impacts on Tuesday morning commute times. Tuesday morning will have the highest chance of snow, at 100%. It will drop to 50% by midday.

In addition to snow, winds will pick up to 28 mph in some areas, blowing snow and reducing visibility.

The weather service recommends keeping an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

This is the typical time for lake effect snow, which is common in the late fall and early winter of the Great Lakes region. It occurs when cold air, usually from Canada, moves across the warm, open waters of lakes like Lake Erie. After the lake freezes over, lake effect snow is over.

This is the second expected snow for Cleveland this fall after 2.7 inches during an Oct. 31-Nov. 1 storm , as recorded at the airport.

The last snow warning in Greater Cleveland came on March 19 for Geauga County, one of the few in Cleveland’s previous mild winter . The last winter storm warning that resulted in multiple inches of snow occurred on December 23, 2022.

After Tuesday, the lake effect warning should lift, with cloudy skies forecasted for Wednesday and Thursday morning. But expect rain by Thursday night, which will last into Friday.

Zachary Smith is the data reporter for cleveland.com. You can reach him at See previous data stories at this link.