Germany: Brandenburg goes to the polls with far-right AfD hoping for second state win – Europe live

What's at stake in Brandenburg? Kate Connolly Voters in the northern German state of Brandenburg are today deciding not only on the future make up of the regional parliament but holding what is being seen as the equivalent of a referendum on the future of the embattled coalition government of Olaf Scholz.

His Social Democrats have ruled in Brandenburg, the state that surrounds Berlin like a doughnut, since reunification in 1990.

All eyes are on the state, as the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) was leading in the final pre-election polls with 28%, ahead of the Social Democratic party (SPD), and could be about to win the state for the first time.

However, in what is being described as a neck and neck race, the SPD has considerably narrowed the gap in recent days, and in final polls was just a single percentage point behind the AfD, with 27%.

The SPD's incumbent leader, Dietmar Woidke, has effectively gambled his party's success in the vote on his own popularity ratings, pledging to resign if the AfD beats his party. The AfD has called for the resignation of Chancellor Scholz in the event of its winning the state.

In what has become an increasingly fractured political landscape in recent years (the AfD came into being 11 years ago), the newcomers, Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a left-wing, conservative grouping which broke away from the far-left Die Linke and has been in existence since January, has a good chance of entering government. It was polling around 13% in final surveys.

A so-called 'firewall' has been put up by the established parties, meaning they will not form a coalition with the AfD. This has the potential to make the BSW a kingmaker in any powerbroking.

and pro-business - the junior partners in Scholz's government, are at risk of failing to reach the 5% hurdle needed to get into parliament.

Three weeks ago the AfD upended the status quo by winning the state election in Thuringia with 33% - the first time a far-right force had won a state election in post-war Germany - accompanied by a strong second place in neighbouring Saxony with more than 30%.

Share Far-right AfD looking to make German history in Brandenburg state election Kate Connolly About 2.5 million Brandenburgers are eligible to vote today in what may be one of the smallest German states population-wise, comprising a belt of rural, and suburban settlements surrounding Berlin.

Yet, with its predicted boost for the far-right party, the race is drawing a huge amount of attention that belies the state's size. Three weeks ago, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) upended the status quo with its win in Thuringia – the first time a far-right force had won a state election in post-war Germany – accompanied by a strong second place in neighbouring Saxony with more than 30%.

Marianne Spring-Räumschüssel, an AfD representative on Cottbus city council, predicted a "glorious" victory for the AfD, which has been leading the polls in the state for more than a year. "You can smell it in the air."

As the only state in eastern Germany where the Social Democrats have ruled continuously since German reunification in 1990, Brandenburg's vote is seen as a particular test for the embattled coalition government of the SPD chancellor, Olaf Scholz, which, according to a poll this week , only 3% of Germans are convinced is good for the country.

With Brandenburg's vote being viewed as a referendum on Scholz's government, defeat for the SPD would be of deep symbolic significance, particularly before next autumn's Bundestag election.

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