GREAT LAKES REGION: Long arid stretch leads to near-drought conditions

Sep. 20—TRAVERSE CITY — The summer of 2024 is turning into the gift that keeps on giving as Northwest Michigan continues to bask in a long stretch of warm, dry late summer weather.

The Traverse City area has only recorded 0.37 inches of rain over the past month, according to National Weather Service Meteorologist Andy Sullivan, and most of that fell during a 0.28-inch rain event Aug. 28. Since Sept. 1, a scant 0.07 inches has fallen in Traverse City, leading to parched lawns and dry fields — but plenty of extended summer fun in the region.

"We usually get a dry period in the summer — just not this late in the season," Sullivan said. "Most areas average about 3 inches (of rain) per month."

Late spring and early summer brought wide swaths of rain across much of the region, but the late-season conditions have gradually pushed the area to near-drought conditions. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor produced by the University of Nebraska, several Lake Michigan shoreline counties, including Grand Traverse, Benzie and Leelanau, are classified as "D0" which is "abnormally dry," while parts of the eastern and central Upper Peninsula slipped into the "D1" or "moderate drought" category.

Temperatures, which typically average just over 70 degrees at this time of year, also have been running 10 to 15 degrees above that over the past two weeks.

Sullivan said the region's arid conditions over the past month have been spawned by a stubborn high pressure system that's settled over the Great Lakes. The high pressure dome is keeping the jet stream locked up north of Michigan in Canada and pushing most of the late-summer storm systems north of the region.

The Drought Monitor reports that more than 25 percent of Michigan's agriculture pastures are currently rated as "poor" to "very poor" because of the dry conditions. Areas south of Michigan have seen even drier weather, as the entire state of Illinois is listed in abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions, while much of Ohio is experiencing severe, extreme and even exceptional drought conditions.

"We've had a big ridge of high pressure that's been sitting over us, and it hasn't moved," Sullivan said. "This ridge is just in control."

Conditions could change shortly as forecasters said there's a good chance of light rain today, and more rain chances later Sunday into Monday as the fall equinox officially arrives Sunday at 8:43 a.m.

"When you're in a dry pattern like this, it takes a lot to break that down," Sullivan said. "But I think we'll get at least a good dousing at some point over the weekend."

While the extended warm and sunny conditions are drying out the region's landscape, some sectors of northern Michigan are reaping the benefits of the extended summer season. Kajetan Morman of the marketing department at Crystal Mountain Resort in Benzie County said the unseasonably mild weather has kept the resort busy well past the Labor Day holiday when the summer season typically begins to wind down.

"We're thankful that, with the warmer weather, people are able to get out and enjoy it," Morman said. "We're keeping a steady flow of guests — it's keeping us busy."

Sullivan said the above-average temperatures seen over the past two weeks are expected to moderate over the next week — but not much as temperatures are expected to stay in the 70s after the late weekend rain moves through. He expects conditions will remain favorable for the foreseeable future.

"Our falls have been typically mild, and it looks like that's going to continue this fall," he said.