Hurricane Center eyes brewing systems in Caribbean, Atlantic with tropical storm potential

(This story will be updated to add new information.)

There's activity swirling around in the tropics — and forecasters are keeping an eye on it.

An area of low pressure near the Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and a tropical wave near the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic Environmental conditions could support some gradual development — a tropical depression may form from these systems, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Regardless of formation, both may produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

Here's what's brewing in the tropics as of Sunday, Sept. 22:

Weather alerts via text

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low hlpressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has not become better organized since yesterday. Although the low remains embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived tropical depression cannot be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Retired hurricane names: These will never, ever be used again. Is your name on the list?

What the National Hurricane Center is also tracking in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a tropical weather outlook. Here is the advisory as of 8 a.m. EST Sunday, Sept. 22:

Potential heavy rainfall in Central America:

A Central American Gyre (CAG) is gradually developing over Central America with a 1007 mb low pressure embedded along the monsoon trough near central Panama. A broad area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection encompasses much of the SW Caribbean Sea in association with this low. The low is forecast to drift northwestward across northern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and the Yucatan Peninsula through the middle of next week. Aided by abundant tropical moisture, this system may produce significant rainfall near Panama through tonight, and Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua through Tuesday.

Heavy rain may spread over central and northern Guatemala, western Honduras, Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Monday through Thursday. This will lead to an increased potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these areas. In addition, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely for form as the system moves slowly north across the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days.

Gulf of Mexico:

See above for information on developing low pressure over the NW Caribbean and adjacent parts of Central America that may impact portions of Gulf of Mexico later this week.

Weak high pressure dominates, aside from a surface trough that has moved W offshore the Yucatan overnight. Dry conditions prevail with light to gentle E winds and seas of 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will gradually be replaced by the low pressure.

Caribbean Sea:

Please refer to the above for potential heavy rainfall associated with a developing Central American Gyre (CAG).

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted at the southeastern basin. Mainly gentle E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, aside from the developing low pressure in the NW Caribbean, winds and seas will generally be moderate or less.

Atlantic Ocean:

A 1007 mb low pressure centered near 26N56W is producing scattered moderate convection along with fresh winds and seas to 8 ft from 26N to 29N between 52W and 56W. This low (AL96) is in an unfavorable environment for development, but a short lived tropical depression cannot be ruled out of showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves N at 5 kt over the central subtropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical formation through the next 48 hours.

Farther E, the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are centered near 26N42W, with 1007 mb. This low is no longer producing in convection, but a broad area of fresh SE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft extend N of the low, N of 22N between 36W and 42W.

A weak surface trough stretches from N of 31N70W to just NE of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of this trough axis, and fresh N winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted W of the trough, N of 29N, extending W to 78W.

For the remainder of the basin, weak high pressure is leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, except N of the monsoon trough, where moderate trades and seas to 6 ft prevail.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa over the next few days. Gradual development of this wave is possible as it moves W, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while the system moves across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak cold front will move off the SE coast of the US this afternoon, then slowly move across the waters N of 25N through Monday night.

When is hurricane season in Florida?

The Atlantic hurricane season is from June 1 to Nov. 30 every year, with the most active part of the season between August and October.

The next named storm would be Helene.

Weather radar: Will it rain in Gainesville, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach, Florida?

Shown is the National Weather Service radar for Jacksonville area, which shows conditions in real-time for parts of North Florida. The current date and time show up on the bottom right of this radar embed; otherwise, you may need to clear your cache.

Weather radar: Will it rain in Melbourne, Orlando, Lakeland, Tampa, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Fort Pierce, Florida, today?

Shown is the National Weather Service-Melbourne radar, which shows conditions in real-time for the Space Coast and other parts of Florida. The current date and time show up on the bottom right of this radar embed; otherwise, you may need to clear your cache.

Weather radar: Will it rain in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Naples, Miami, Florida, today?

Shown is the National Weather Service radar for West Palm Beach, which shows conditions in real-time for parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys. The current date and time show up on the bottom right of this radar embed; otherwise, you may need to clear your cache.

Weather radar: Will we get showers, thunderstorms, rain in Florida today?

Shown is the National Weather Service radar for the Southeast United States, which shows conditions in real-time. The current date and time show up on the bottom right of this radar embed; otherwise, you may need to clear your cache.

Watches, warnings issued for Florida, US

Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text

Excessive rainfall forecast

What are the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season names ?

According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, these are the list of names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:

What's next?

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here .