Ironing Out The Details: Midweek Winter Storm

(SOUTHERN COLORADO) — The FOX21 News Storm Team is monitoring the next winter storm that is set to come to Southern Colorado Tuesday night, Nov. 5, and last through Saturday, Nov. 9. There are several inconsistencies in the models so here is what we know as of Monday, Nov. 4.

Storm timing

We are confident that a winter storm will come to the area Tuesday night and it will be a multiple-day event.

At this time, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch Tuesday night through Wednesday for parts of the Pikes Peak Region and parts of the Sangre de Cristos. The Weather Service typically issues a Winter Storm Watch when winter storm or blizzard conditions are possible within the next three days but the timing, intensity or occurrence may still be uncertain.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of Las Animas and Huerfano Counties due to difficult travel conditions that are expected Monday night for the earlier in the week's storm.

Storm location, path, and energy are key to how this plays out

As of Monday night, the Storm Team is still looking at inconsistencies with our forecast models as to where the storm will start, how the storm will evolve energetically, and the path of the storm. As the image above shows, two of the many models we use to forecast, the European model and the American model are quite different in all the criteria.

The start

Both models agree that the storm will move into the state on Tuesday, Nov. 5. As the first photo for each model shows, there will be snow in Western Colorado and the High Country Tuesday morning, and then move into Southern Colorado later that night.

However, the European model shows the pressure change and energy of the storm is a little stronger than the American model which can mean the difference between stronger winds as the storm comes in and can mean a slight difference in the amount of snow coming in during this period.

The path of the storms and how it evolves

Here's where things could get interesting, the path of the storm is everything here in Southern Colorado. Typically if a system starts too far north, it could mean a more potent storm for the high country, the Denver Metro, and the Northeastern portion of Colorado than for Southern Colorado. If a storm moves to the south of the state, it could mean a more potent storm for the Southern Mountains and Southern Colorado than for the Denver Metro. If the storm moves too far south or north, it means not a lot happens.

As the second image in the group in the model comparison shows, the European model shows a more southern and more energetic path and it tends to linger longer near the Four Corners region. The American model is less energetic as it moves to the south of Colorado and moves through the state at a faster rate.

If the storm follows a path similar to the European model that could mean a higher impact storm. If the storm follows the American model that could mean a lesser impactful storm.

How the storm ends

You know what they say, it's not over until it's over. In the last slide of the comparison, the two models differ wildly on how this storm wraps up. Both models indicate that this storm will finish in what appears to be a heavy snowfall event on Friday into Saturday.

Which state gets the heavy-banded snowfall event? The American model shows that the storm doesn't turn into a heavy snowfall event until it reaches Kansas on Saturday. If the storm does what the European model says it does.... that could mean this storm brings very heavy and somewhat slushy snow Friday night into Saturday in Colorado.

Snow totals and impacts

As we discussed above, there is so much that plays into how much snow we get in the region.

When models do not agree, there can be differences in how we forecast how much snow we get in an area. You can see below in the first image comparison for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the main difference is European model is predicting a heavier amount of snow for the mountains while the American model is predicting less for the mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday.

This is most likely due to the fact the European model is predicting a more Four Corners centered storm and is more energetic than the American model.

There's also a stark difference in what the models think is going to happen the entire duration of the storm. What I mean by stark difference is the American model indicates a total of 3 inches for some parts of El Paso County by Saturday while the European model shows a foot of snow. You can compare for yourself below.

Please note, that these totals are for the entire period of Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Not what you see on your front lawn when you wake up Wednesday morning.

Stick with us through the storm

The forecast for this storm will change as we continue to get model updates. Model updates can occur every one, three, six, and 12 hours depending on the model.

The Storm Team will continue to update you on what happens online, on air, and on our mobile app. The best way to stay in the loop is to download the FOX21 News app. You can download it now on the App Store and Android Store.